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A cynic would say FC Zlín are returning in the same shape they were relegated in. The cynic would, in fact, often hail from Zlín’s own fandom. The same stadium in acute need of fixing up, the same owner of 25 years, the same vice-president who is now a Czech FA vice-chairman on top of it, and the same pragmatic, defence-first coach betting on the same types of players including a throwback striker up top. One major change, and possibly even a source of hope, is personified by sporting manager Pavel Hoftych whose involvement is showing on an unusually active transfer window for a promoted club.

When FC Zlín dropped down a level in 2024, the regional capital known worldwide as the birthplace of Tomáš Baťa was officially losing its grip on the two most popular sports’ top flight for the first time in 44 years. Now that RI Okna Berani Zlín remain stuck in the ice hockey’s second-tier for a disappointing fourth straight year while keeping Trinity Bank as a key sponsor, FC Zlín are immediately back up with questions marks surrounding their financial power ever since parting ways with Trinity Bank one third into their agreement.

Luckily for FC Zlín, there is now a new money pot to reach into as opposed to 2023, and a bit more commitment from the general partner, building company PSG, hence the flurry of new signings slightly improving the club’s odds to survive this renewed experience. The stadium is also undergoing some refurbishments concerning the dressing rooms, the press box, or a new fanshop. Construction of a promised eastern stand has been delayed further, though.

The shortened preview below, as is normally the case for promoted teams with only one pizza chart to lean on, is every bit as much my work as it is of my three consultants — @Wambasen, @bar_lada and @Pesam. Massive thanks; it would’ve literally been impossible without them.

Looking back on 2024/25

How they got here

On paper, convincingly. Before they hit a bit of a funk, Zlín were up 17 points on the second Chrudim on 8 April (17-4-0). By that point, they were already pretty secure in climbing back up a level; a month later, it was official with three rounds to spare. Ultimately, their 18-point lead on the next-best team beat even the dominant Zbrojovka Brno promotion bid of 21/22 (16 points) which was already good enough to stand tall as the most pronounced Top 2 separation since FC Synot in 2000 (17 points). Ever since 3 points for a win became a thing in 1994, only FC Dukla made for more of a runaway 2nd-tier champion with the same amount of points (71) twenty-eight years ago. Nearly the entire Slovan Liberec squad wasn’t alive then. In terms of the point gain, it only lags behind SK Dynamo České Budějovice of 18/19 (72) in recent past. Zlín only suffered their first loss in Round 25 (Dynamo did in August), starting off with a remarkable streak of five clean sheets. In the end, Stanislav Dostál set the club’s one-season record with 16 shutouts, beating every single second-tier total since Petr Vašek’s 17 with Baník in 15/16. The standard between then and now for a clean sheet leader was 10-13.

On paper, then, all was rosy. But beneath the surface, boy, the problems had bubbled all along. Zlín scraped out as many as 12 victories by a single goal. While their defence was, on balance, easily the sturdiest in the league (by a great margin of roughly eight expected goals against), they were also the first second-tier champions not to be at least Top 2 in xGFExpected Goals For (xGF) estimates how many goals a team should have scored based on shot quality, location, and context. since Pardubice of 19/20. The troubles were most apparent early on in the promotion campaign. In fact, Zlín were close to losing to Líšeň as soon as in the first round when they got saved by a crossbar hit from like two meters. Something similar followed against Žižkov in August or Zbrojovka in September when a wasted 100% chance turned into a winner at the other end. Since then, Zlín have never looked back, losing just two xG matchups the rest of the way.

Most valuable players (staying)

When your top scorer(s) don’t even reach the double digits — something that hadn’t happened to second-tier leaders since Znojmo 12 years ago, by the way — it’s inevitable we’ll build from the back in this space. That starts with Stanislav Dostál, per my model the third-best goalkeeper in the top flight two years ago and still an above average one (56.5th percentile) last summer, who crucially signed a new contract back in May. It’s more complicated with other defensive studs. Jakub Černín may have been up there with the best defenders in the second tier, but the top level had been a bit much for him earlier, as there were only 9 centre backs less dependable than him in 23/24 (again, per my model). With Joss Didiba, a lot of concerns have been papered over by moving him full-time to central midfield, where he gets enough of a cover from Cletus Nombil and two centre halves to calmly flash his fine passing range. His role in the build-up as well as on long throw-ins arguably make him the most important outfield player still on board, considering the costly departures…

Inside the off-season

Squad makeover

When your top scorers don’t even reach the double digits, it’s a problem; but it becomes more of an issue when both of them ditch you the following summer. That’s what happened with Vukadin Vukadinović and David Tkáč. The former was a case of recognizing a unique opportunity to cash in while staying put at the comfortable second-tier level for a 34/35-year-old; the latter was a case of FC Zlín, for a change, cashing in on homegrown talent. What Zlín are now left with are two 9-goal holes, poised to be filled by either a defensive winger of sorts (Marián Pišoja) or a 2nd-tier star played out of position (Tom Ulbrich) in the first case, and either Ulbrich or closer to a 3rd-tier star (Michal Cupák) in the second case.

That makes you think. Especially as your next-best scorer (with 7 strikes) is Tomáš Poznar, whose two goals were assisted by Vukadinović, and who already seemed out of depth on this level in 23/24. Soon turning 37 and really mostly good for tap-ins in Chance Národní Liga already, the captain is to be preferred at the expense of Matěj Koubek who normally gets shoved to RW or LW. In chasing 50 top flight goals (needs 6), Poznar kind of resembles 24/25 Jakub Řezníček; a token veteran who takes playing time away from more valuable options.

It’s probably telling about the upcoming season and Zlín’s proclaimed ambition to perform “disgusting football”, that the one area where the club actually did manage to bolster its depth and quality, concerns the defence. Miloš Kopečný was fine for the second tier, but Michala Fukala is a smart addition to rival him. Jan Kalabiška could be the same to Lukáš Bartošák, also extended through next season, though some fans would rather give space to hometown boy Šimon Polášek — now 21, also ready to deputize at RB. But possibly the best bet on insurance policy is embodied by Antonín Křapka, exactly the kind of a steady pair of hands on deck Zlín badly needed next to the mercurial duo of Jakub Kolář and Černín.

Hard to tell now whether Zlín haven’t actually overdone it with bolstering the defence as opposed to the offence: they are keeping 90.8% of all 24/25 minutes dished out to defensive-minded guys, while retaining 61.5% of all goal contributions including the primary, secondary and terciary assists. Perhaps more concerningly, only 11.5% of last term’s playing time went to U-23s; percentage somehow even smaller than that of Bohemians Praha 1905 (dead last in Chance Liga). In other words, don’t get your hopes up with regards to Tomáš Hellebrand, the youngest of the three brothers, breaking out at 17/18. Fans will be over the moon if the resolute yet technically adept midfielder Stanislav Petruța, two years Hellebrand’s senior, finally gets a proper chance in place of Nombil who’s a vocal, but also error-prone organizer.

Looking ahead to 2025/26

Below is the team’s current(ish) depth chart with a maximum of 4 alternatives for one position. The colourful ratings are a static snapshot of the league-wide situation on 5 July, and they are just a playful bit to add flavour to it; the names featured should be relevant to this day. To learn more about my approach to constructing depth charts, with all its limitations, head here.

Primary formation

According to Wyscout, Bronislav Červenka utilized a 4-4-2 formation 47% of the time, while opting for some variation of a one-striker formation (mostly 4-2-3-1 or a flatter kind) also 47% of the time. Up a level, it’s almost certainly going to be a deep double pivot of Didiba and Nombil “unleashing” a no. 8/10, with most of the danger hopefully generatd from the flanks.

Notes on the depth chart

One source of points that has stayed on and will be crucial to any potential team success: Zviad Natchkebia. We got a taste of him in 23/24 already, but only now he’s a legitimate regular (11th most used Zlín player in 24/25) and his bursts down the left with a sudden cut inside for a shot or a cross might make for one last consistent weapon standing. He could feature on the right, too, and goes into this season on the back of 7 goal contributions (5 pts).

Two major wild cards on the depth chart both boast some experience from the Portuguese top two tiers. Stanley Kanu (26) used to appear in Primeira Liga for Marítimo, but here he’s stuck behind Poznar as the more interesting alternative. André Lopes (23) seldom trained with Porto’s first-team and regularly featured for their reserves in 24/25, but here he’s likely stuck behind 2-3 left back options, having the best chance to play on the wing which he never really was. He’s got the technique you’d expect from a player of his nationality, and could even take some set pieces if Červenka surprisingly decides to truly bet on him.

David Machalík and Lukáš Buchvaldek are likely nowhere near the top flight level. Machalík is pushed down the hierarchy by Ulbrich, posting a 6+2 record for Vyškov, while the latter seemed to be headed for the chopping block only to turn some heads in the pre-season.

Season forecast

And so finally, we arrive at the awkward projection.

There is one, straightforward way how to look at it: it’s a complete nonsense, because there’s just no way Zlín are going to finish ahead of Boleslav, Karviná and Teplice. There’s also the other, admittedly less straightforward way how to process it: note that landing in the relegation group is still the most likely outcome for Zlín (55%), while the three points that separate them from 14th Slovácko are… not much. Crucially, though, the model doesn’t have an opinion and therefore isn’t wrong. It also placed Zbrojovka Brno 10th after they went up with 22 wins and 69 points, and actually looked smart for it until it all mysteriously fell apart. Brno did indeed sit on par with 10th-place Baník at Christmas, riding the second-tier wave deep into the top flight campaign. It really isn’t outside the realm of possibility that FC Zlín now pull off the same trick, and there’s no need to pretend otherwise just to look cool on X.

(That said, would I give them a 2% chance of getting into Europe or only the 9% likelihood of going down? Obviously not. It would be a zero and closer to 20-25% respectively.)

Bold prediction

The track record: 0/3. At no point did Vrba have five U-21 players on the pitch

The prediction: Červenka starts with the same record Hoftych enjoyed while playing him

The rationale: A bit of an Inception. Hoftych was actually Červenka’s mentor once upon a time, and he wasn’t just any coach to him. In fact, there has been no manager who trusted Červenka more, in a way, with Hoftych giving him an average of 89.7 minutes per game, only subbing him off once. Červenka ultimately started 15 games for Hoftych, with a fairly sub-standard record of 3 wins, 7 draws and 5 losses. Could Zlín now take 16 points from the first 15 rounds? It somehow feels like the right ballpark, so let’s go ahead and lock it in, shall we?

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