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On a fourth permanent coach since the iconic Martin Svědík left the club a mere year and a half ago, Slovácko are officially at a critical crossroads and part of the relegation-threatened inner circle. Last season, there was the Dynamo-shaped get-out-of-jail card; now there’s no cushion, with Slovácko sharing the 14-point basement with two other clubs. Will the (thus far) modest winter reinforcements prove to be enough for the fight?

The Outlook

In April 2024, a spiralling Slovácko plummeted to a regular-season point return of 41, leaving everyone including the departing Martin Svědík flustered. Last winter, a vastly disappointing Slovácko received a 39-point forecast and got dropped from the initially projected 7th place to 10th. Now, they are projected to earn just over 25 points after 30 rounds; a bar they were clearing in 99%+ simulations in all three summers between 2022-24. Three shades of grey.

There are a number of ways how to describe the underwhelming autumn of 1. FC Slovácko, but none seems to do it proper justice. The 40% chance of dropping down? In the same neighbourhood with Slovácko’s chances of sneaking into the Top 6 just 18 months ago (34%). The 6 projected regular-season wins? Smetana’s outfit was fancied for four extra only a year ago; Dynamo ČB — already a shell of a club — were good for the same amount 2 years ago.

The only source of hope is Slovácko’s remaining schedule. They face all their immediate rivals at home, where they’ve already upset Sparta and Plzeň, which also gives them a unique shot at some ugly records on the road. As of now, they have earned an embarrassing 16.7% of all goals scored and 31.1% of expected goals for the 0-4-6 away record despite still having to visit Sparta, Jablonec, Liberec, Olomouc and Karviná. Guys, what have you been doing?

Peak Gain: Plzeň 3:0 (home)
Peak Loss: Liberec 0:3 (home)

Toughest Assignments Left: Sparta (A), Jablonec (A), Liberec (A)
Softest Assignments Left: Dukla (H), Pardubice (H), Bohemians (H), Boleslav (H)

The Big Question
Who’s going to provide the necessary presence in the box?

For all their faults (Marko Kvasina) and/or significant costs attached (Žan Medved), the two strikers Slovácko cut ties with over the winter (without even partially replacing them) did have some utility. Kvasina created team-leading 6 dangerous situations with his first touch and added most primary value (3.01 EPAExpected Points Added (EPA) estimate the value of one's goals and assists based on game state (late game winners = top).), while Medved received less opportunities but showed more potential for growth as a useful focal point with more dynamism to his game.

Now what’s left is a hollow version of Michael Krmenčík. Literally just him alone. That it’s only one recognized centre forward left (with no one else so much as being tested in Turkey) is, in and of itself, a massive problem. It gets even bigger when you realize Slovácko doesn’t boast any scoring winger and Krmenčík has registered roughly one touch in box less per 90 than both Medved and Kvasina. It’s honestly hard to think of a more baffling choice of 2026.

As opposed to Dukla, Slovácko’s main issues don’t concern getting into the danger zone (they are 11th in deep completions and penalty area entries) but rather getting those golden touches when inside it. That means both pulling the trigger (Slovácko are dead last in rolling 10-game xGFExpected Goals For (xGF) estimates how many goals a team should have scored based on shot quality, location, and context. over the most recent period) and pulling it well enough, with the team nearly 3.5 goals behind their expected output per xGSExpected Goals Scored (xGS) only takes shots on target into account, including their power and placement on top of xGF. (ranked 16th). It’s hard to see this improving from within the organization unless Krmenčík goes full 24/25 Sparta mode for more than one game a season, or Marek Havlík starts banging in one screamer after another like it’s 2023 again. I don’t know about you, but those are not the bets I’d be rushing to place today.

Had Slovácko not benefitted from 6 opponents’ fuck-ups, they’d have been left with 5 goals.

Think about that.

The X-Factor
Havlík’s elevated play under new coach Skuhravý

The first four games of Roman Skuhravý’s tenure were a decidedly mixed bag — bringing two deserved wins, one against a powerhouse, and two deserved losses, one against a powerhouse — but more important than results was the process behind them, and specifically the deployment of the veterans. Petržela was brought back as a starter to provide some guile. Daníček was moved up from defence to act more as a reference point. And Havlík, the languishing central midfielder, got a much-needed face-lift as a right wide midfielder/forward. There, he no longer looked off the pace, enjoying more time on the ball. There, he immediately directed the derby win and a relatively brave performance vs Slavia.

While Daníček and Petržela may not sustain their positive impact, Havlík could have a future further away from the centre of the park. He’s enjoyed a bit of a bounce back in terms of deep completions (28), delivering a tremendous eleven (7 passes, 4 crosses) in the 4 starts under Skuhravý. If the coach plans to push a more possession-oriented brand of football, like his past unmistakenly indicates, maximizing Havlík’s effect must be very high on his agenda.

There arguably isn’t a more depressing MVP leaderboard; a line that is dangerously close to my opener of the same section of Slovácko’s 24/25 mid-season review. Back then, Michal Trávník, Milan Heča and Marek Havlík were just as uninspiring frontrunners as they were symbolic of the club’s downfall. Now they form a Top 4 cluster again, with Vlastimil Daníček somehow making an even more surprising appearance somewhere inbetween the trio, riding a wave of exactly three excellents performances and not much else. Indeed, the reality has not changed much in Uherské Hradiště. Last year, Trávník was the MVP pick mostly thanks to his set piece delivery, and that is very much the case this year, as well. He’s also aided considerably by the “DEF” role tag which is only bordeline justified with Martin Šviderský or Daníček often deployed below him. If you were to consider him an attack-minded piece of the puzzle instead, he would be sitting on 291.1 MVP points, dropping to the 3rd place.

Grim, but what can you do when Kvasina’s two important points are not even tied for the team lead. They lead outright. Heča is 4th here despite only being the 12th best goalkeeper.

The Wild Card

There’s a long way to go before I start trusting Slovácko’s attacking corps, so I had to go with a defence-minded face. Filip Vaško is, if nothing else, reasonably secure in his role of a starter (as opposed to Stojčevski and Rundić who are slated to battle it out for the spot next to him), and his departure point isn’t bad. Not too far from the 200-point threshold, Vaško certainly needs to start overseeing more clean sheets (2) and stop fouling so often deep down (10 fouls inside own third plus 1 penalty caused) to rise up the leaderboard, though.

The Shake-Up

Far from an actual shake-up, Adonija Ouanda is pretty much the only agent of chaos under consideration. He’s 20 and fresh off an 11-point autumn, but the Serbian 2nd tier doesn’t sound all that demanding. As a product of Slavia’s scouting department that is by far the richest in terms of resources among the Czech elite, you’d at the very least hope Ouanda has got what it takes to supplant Patrik Blahút amidst a frustratingly toothless campaign.

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