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On 19 July, just a few days before their continental showdown with Legia, Baník lined up for the league opener flush with all the trump cards — Ewerton, Šín, Prekop, Rigo, Kohút. Everyone was there for the unlucky 0:1 loss. Fast forward 6 months, the first four names are gone, as is the head coach biding the curse of the successful men before him, and the fifth star only just returned from a long injury lay-off. A side the model had all but locked into the Top 4 now finds itself joint bottom, with 9 fewer projected wins than at the outset.

The Outlook

Every season has got its anomaly. In January 2023, Jablonec found their point projection slashed by 10.1 points. A year later, the model needed to go a similar amount upwards, for a change, with the super-charging Sparta (10.5). Last year, the record-setting Dynamo České Budějovice underwhelmed so much it had the model correcting itself by over 14 points. And then there’s this *frantically gestures at the forecast*… a travesty where any words fail you in even trying to describe it. Going from 54.3 projected regular-season points to 27.6 isn’t just an outlier; it’s a collapse of epic proportions. Going from 94% likelihood of landing inside the Top 6 to an equal likelihood of landing in the Bottom 6 frankly shouldn’t even be possible.

However brutal all this sounds, and honestly truly is, the best thing Baník can now do is to just shrug it off. There’s no point in dwelling on half a season where everything that could’ve gone wrong basically did. Ostrava’s aim is simple: “bottom out” the stress-less way Hapal’s side did in 2023 and use this experience to bounce back big time in the following season or two — like Hapal’s side did. The bad news: 22/23 Baník had 24 points after 19 rounds, not 14. The good news: Ostrava are going into 2026 on a high, following an inspired camp with some actual goalscorers, and should be aiming for 9(ish) points from the first 4. Some more bad news: the entire Top 4 awaits them in the last 7. Only Zlín have got it rougher down the wire.

Peak Gain: Pardubice 1:0 (away) / Dukla 3:1 (home) / Slovácko 2:0 (home)
Peak Loss: Pardubice 1:4 (home)

Toughest Assignments Left: Slavia (H), Sparta (A), Plzeň (H)
Softest Assignments Left: Boleslav (H), Bohemians (H), Zlín (H)

The Big Question
Can the new core make slow starts gradually go away?

As any sober Baník fan would probably attest, the 3rd side of 24/25 hasn’t encountered any extraordinary pile of bad luck this season. Ostrava do lag behind their xPExpected Points (xP) measure a team's likely point gain from a particular game; not only based on sum xGF and xGA, but also based on distribution of shots (ie. five 0.01 xG shots won't give you the same chance for a win as one 0.05 xG shot). total by the largest amount — nearly 9 points — but it’s not like they are alone on an island; all of Slovácko, Bohemians and Dukla are longing for 6.5-7.0 “lost” points, meaning that Baník would sit 10th in the xP table, but in no comfortable way (3 points off last place). They legitimately sucked.

That being said, by Matchday 7, Hapal couldn’t use an incredible seven of his starters on the opening day (four departed, two were injured, one was ill), and you may add Filip Kubala, subbed on in the opener, for good measure. That, above all else, has been the reason behind Baník’s consistently sluggish starts, and it’s really hard to understate them as the reason behind Baník’s awful autumn. Ostrava went scoreless in an astonishing fourteen first halves (out of 19, remember), and underpeformed the fall’s expected scoreline before the break by about 4.5 goals. It’s not only about goals, a notoriously volatile statistic: per my notes, too, they were the worst team in the league accounting for the opening 15 mins only (minus-31 chance differential) and accounting for the entire first halves, as well (a staggering minus-82).

Goals were hard to come by for Baník at any time, of course, with their second-half total of 6 goals misrepresenting their expected output to a far more dramatic extent (12.1 goals), but there’s no denying the opening passages carry a mysterious mental weight. No wonder Ostrava scored a combined two goals in the 9 games they found themselves in a hole at HT.

The X-Factor
Opposing goalkeepers standing on their head vs Baník

Baník do have well-documented finishing issues, and I particularly cannot comprehend why every recent coach at the club seems to actively encourage hopeless shots from 25+ meters, but there’s no need to pretend the misery is purely of their own making. If you compare Ostrava’s accumulated pre-shot xG (xGFExpected Goals For (xGF) estimates how many goals a team should have scored based on shot quality, location, and context.) and goals scored, they “peaked” at 8.04 goals below expectation in Round 19. But if you compare Ostrava’s accumulated post-shot xG (xGSExpected Goals Scored (xGS) only takes shots on target into account, including their power and placement on top of xGF.) and goals scored, they had “peaked” at 8.16 goals in Round 16, meaning it’s not squarely on them.

Baník’s astonishing 5-game dry run, concluding with the Teplice 0:1 dud, not only wouldn’t have happened in most universes from the sum xGF perspective, but it also took a torrid run of four opposing goalkeepers who saved a full goal above expectation, one after another, for four consecutive rounds. Zadražil, Jedlička, Markovič and Hanuš combined for a completely absurd 4.79 prevented goals in the space of one month, while on the season, the quartet actually puts together a measly 0.11 prevented goals. All four of those performances fit inside the Top 12 of all 25/26 goalkeeping efforts, and Jan Koutný is not too far behind (19th).

Go figure.

With no other team did I go through so much trouble to find a single metric in which the MVP leader actually leads his team… and I still failed. That’s what happens when you basically revarnish your first team halfway through autumn. Ondřej Kričfaluši is an exceptionally gifted holding midfielder-slash-centre back who contributes offensively more than every third winger or attacking midfielder in the league, but David Planka would arguably make for a more fitting choice, lagging behind his fellow late arrival by a mere 5.6 MVP points. In just over 11 starts, the stud youngster jumped out to lead Baník in chance-creating actions (21).

If it’s not one of these two leading the pack at the season’s end, it’s quite likely one of winter reinforcements in their stead, because Dominik Holec figures to take a back seat to Martin Jedlička, Marek Havran figures to be sacrificed in favour of the two-forward formation, and Christian Frýdek somehow figures to soon leave Ostrava where he’s suddenly unwanted.

The Wild Card

Another option is that Srdjan Plavšić jumps all the way up courtesy of his highly eventful playing style. Racking up nearly 175 MVP points in less than 5 starts is no piece of cake for a regular footballer, but for the Serb who’s nonetheless in team’s joint-lead for chance-creating open-play crosses (9), it kind of is. While only getting one unimportant assist, Plavšić is third in primary chance-creating actions (8) and due for more points if he sticks on the left wing.

The Shake-Up

At last, Erik Prekop is getting replaced — by two players who might actually be better. Both Václav Jurečka and Abdallah Gning have potential to bag 5+ goals in the spring, each, and that alone would be barrier-breaking for the starved side. Gning especially is a smart bet, because he’s never not useful, even if he doesn’t score, and generally works well in a tandem up top.

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