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In summer 2022, Jakub’s model debuted on Czech Footy with a bold prediction of its own: FC Zbrojovka Brno, that year’s promoted side, were tipped to surge straight into 10th. It raised eyebrows — until eight rounds in, with 14 points on the board, the model suddenly looked prescient. FC Zlín found themselves in the identical sweet spot at the same stage this season, likewise projected for a Top-10 finish and on 14 points after 8. But where Zbrojovka closed the autumn with three straight defeats, Ševci managed to halt the slide. They, too, began to spiral — until the demolition of Sigma flipped the narrative on its head.

The Outlook

The fall was three games shorted back in 2022, and maybe that played a role, but it’s funny to note that Zbrojovka still saw its forecast improve (by 0.8 points) before eventually plunging to death. Brno’s projected standing ticked down a little (to 11th), just like Zlín’s ticks up a little now, but the 4 extra points are huge for ‘Ševci’. Had Olomouc at home become their 5th loss in a row, we may have been looking at a second coming of Zbrojovka (they had 21 points after 19, Zlín would’ve had 23). Instead, it’s hard to argue against the newcomers’ top tier status.

The thing is, a poor finish was never really an option for Zlín, given what awaits them. Their schedule is marked as the toughest by the model, since this is a full list of teams coming to Letná: Sparta, Plzeň, Slavia, Jablonec, Teplice. Sure, Zlín have literally beaten 3 of those sides on the road, but repeating the trick is harder to do especially for a former unknown entity.

Could Zlín still slide all the way down to a play-off spot? A mere 2% chance, says the model. That’s as much their work as it is their rivals’, with 3 of them having to close a 12-point gap.

Peak Gain: Olomouc 5:0 (home) / Jablonec 3:1 (away)
Peak Loss: Karviná 1:3 (home) / Slovácko 0:2 (away)

Toughest Assignments Left: Slavia (H), Plzeň (H), Sparta (H)
Softest Assignments Left: Dukla (A), Pardubice (A), Teplice (H)

The Big Question
Can Červenka stop the bleeding of penalty area entries?

Regardless of the remaining schedule, Zlín’s success so far does seem fragile for multiple reasons. Their chance creation patterns are not the strongest, as you’d likely guess, which is particularly down to the set pieces that contribute little to nothing on most days. If it wasn’t for the one extreme (1.54 set-piece xGFExpected Goals For (xGF) estimates how many goals a team should have scored based on shot quality, location, and context. vs Bohemians in R15), Zlín would most definitely sit dead last and with an average below 0.2 xGF per game. More to the fragility aspect: it won’t shock anyone that Zlín are easily the most efficient side on attack, scoring once per mere 5.4 entries into the box. But what’s more shocking is Zlín’s permeability at the other side, and the fact they also oversee the second-most penalty area entries (11.4) before finally surrendering.

You could argue this was always on the cards for a team actively inviting the pressure by hoofing the ball upfield anytime it gets a chance. But see, it wasn’t always like this. Červenka’s relegated Zlín side was actually one of the best in sealing off their penalty box over the last 15 matches of the ill-fated campaign. Then, they averaged just 9.4 open-play penalty area entries allowed, preventing a league-leading 58.4% of all attempts to crack the box. Now, those figures are 5 entries higher (!) and 9 percentage points lower (!!) — it’s hardly cosmetic.

Zlín currently rank dead last in deep completions against, letting opponents to set themselves up freely and benefitting from their misfiring more than 12 other teams in the league — and that’s while playing out a majority of games at home without hosting anyone better than Liberec. It must be a priority no. 1 for Červenka to patch this up before it’s late.

The X-Factor
Extremes on either side of the xP ledger

I don’t need to tell you Zlín’s campaign has been far from normal. They’ve beaten two UEFA participants and two more current Top 6 members with a combined scoreline of 8:0, yet they also got rattled by Slovácko and Mladá Boleslav — who both put together as many wins as Zlín alone (7), remember — to the tune of 1 goal for, 5 goals against. Little, if anything, about Zlín’s 25/26 season has made sense. And there’s actually a semi-scientific way to prove that.

Four games. Four games out of 19 were more or less in line with the expected point game for both sides. The remaining fifteen matches saw either Zlín or their opponent hard done by, meaning one of the adversaries lost at least 1 point on the day per xPExpected Points (xP) measure a team's likely point gain from a particular game; not only based on sum xGF and xGA, but also based on distribution of shots (ie. five 0.01 xG shots won't give you the same chance for a win as one 0.05 xG shot).. The fortune is pretty evenly split. Zlín outright struck gold three times (Teplice, Plzeň and Jablonec wins) and got lucky on four more occasions, but they were also left wondering “how the hell?” eight times.

As many as 11 Zlín matchups now fit inside the league’s Top 100 of overperformances. Can such a wild run feasibly continue? And once it stops, who’s going to benefit — Zlín, or else?

Same old, same old. It feels like there has barely been a Zlín campaign without Stanislav Dostál vying for the MVP crown, and this season isn’t suddenly changing the record. He’s been a difference-maker in terms of consistency (once putting together a six-game streak of exclusively positive numbers per prevented goals), effective damage control (intervening 33x while only really screwing up 8x), and coming up big just when it matters (preventing 1.8 goals to steal points from Slavia, Plzeň and Liberec, turning away two one-on-ones). Dostál leads all goalkeepers by about 150 MVP points, which is a lot, and his high average Deník Sport mark of 6.1 is reflective of his unrivalled dependability. His second-tier form continues.

Other than that, there are a few surprises. I’m sure not many of you saw Michal Fukala ranking as high as 14th, but his 21 chance-creating actions from open play are only trailing Ryneš and Sinyavskiy among defence-minded players. At the same time, I’m sure many of you expected Michal Cupák higher than 72nd with his 5+3 fetching a lot of value (5.9 EPAExpected Points Added (EPA) estimate the value of one's goals and assists based on game state (late game winners = top).), but the thing is, he hasn’t contributed to any other goals scored beyond the points, and only stands behind 8 wasted chances of his team. He’s got a true Midas touch, but needs to spread his impact more. Finally, how about Stanley Kanu and his 68th place from 9 starts? No other player in the league wastes as little time as the Nigerian, who’s already on 7 points despite only appearing on three scoresheets in total. He too refuses to participate on a goal scored unless he chips in directly; evidently a weird habit of Zlín stars. Although, on that note…

The Wild Card

Miloš Kopečný is a polar opposite of the guys mentioned above as he’s only contributed to goals (4) indirectly, with no goals or assists to his name. They weren’t just any goals, though, with his crosses underpinning game winners against both Plzeň and Jablonec. I expected next to nothing from the 31-year-old going into the season, partly because I still remember his uncelebrated four-game shift at 2019/20 Dynamo, but it’s really no coincidence Zlín suffered 4 of their 7 losses in his absence. And he was only absent for five games, mind.

The Shake-Up

Zlín have decided to mostly stay the course, and who wouldn’t in their position? What’s interesting is that the one position receiving significant boost is the centre back where FCZ seemed reasonably set. Jakub Černín made it to 6 team-of-the-week shortlists courtesy of three important points and some solid defensive shifts, while my guilty pleasure Jakub Kolář has enjoyed quite a renessaince as a top tier starter. Is Jakub Jugas merely a strong voice for the dressing room and a local talisman, or does this mean something more? The cup winner with 16/17 Zlín only suited up for Cracovia’s 4th-tier reserves this season (and barely), so it might be wise to not expect much from him as he turns 34 at the end of this campaign.

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