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Twenty-point-seven. That’s how many extra points the model had to shovel Karviná’s way between this and last winter. A year ago, they were a definite but somewhat mild surprise after a worryingly poor finish to 2024. Now, they are a legit Top 5 threat; their actual point total almost equal to their expected one, their only two losses by more than a goal both involving a red card. MFK Karviná are a real deal, and after withstanding the pressure to perform another big winter sell-out, they seem ready to challenge like 22/23 Bohemians.

The Outlook

Last winter, when the model found itself off by about 5 points, Karviná saw its chances of landing inside the relegation group cut by only 10 per cent to a still-substantial 73%. After ultimately concluding that campaign in the 10th spot, the model is now willing to trust MFK more — going from 70% directly to a flat zero. There’s officially no relegation threat, and exactly as big a chance of UEFA qualification as there was for 23/24 Baník or 22/23 Slovácko.

Put it this way: last season was Karviná’s first ever 40-point one if you took the post season into account. This time around, they are not reaching that threshold within 30 rounds in roughly 5% of simulations. They are in with a shout for a 50-point regular season (18%), which would mean they’d double their point total from only two years ago. Even a 55-point campaign is not out of question; something their Ostrava neighbours have achieved 4x in their far more storied history. With the entire rest of the Top 6 still lined up for a rematch with Karviná, there is certainly a threat of a steep decline — but there’s basically no chance this season ends up being a disappointment, and that’s a huge testament to all involved.

Peak Gain: Bohemians 3:0 (away)
Peak Loss: Liberec 0:6 (away)

Toughest Assignments Left: Slavia (H), Sparta (A), Plzeň (H)
Softest Assignments Left: Dukla (A), Slovácko (H), Pardubice (H)

The Big Question
Can the sudden two-way set-piece excellence be sustained?

Karviná’s unlikely 24/25 success was a true underdog story with all its glory and pitfalls. They were an immature, inconsistent side owning roughly 40% xG shares (all ranked 13th) in all situations — positional attacks, counter-attacks and non-penalty set pieces. Now the picture is very different, and the set piece department has seen by far the most maturing.

It’s not only the great 8:3 scoreline that makes for the third-best goal differential ahead of Slavia (10:6), but it’s especially the xG share Karviná are responsible for (57%), which would have landed in the Plzeň territory last term (58%) and narrowly sits ahead of both Northern Bohemian sides now (both 56%). Granted, in the goals scored column, the 3 direct free kick strikes (two by Rok Štorman who’s on the verge of getting called a specialist) are occupying too large a space, but they don’t do any heavy-lifting in terms of xGFExpected Goals For (xGF) estimates how many goals a team should have scored based on shot quality, location, and context. contribution. Dávid Krčík’s rebound (0.19) was worth more than double the two Štorman hits combined (0.07).

Thus, Karviná must be doing something right in both penalty areas, and aside from two games against noted set-piece powerhouses Slavia and Jablonec, they’ve been especially improved defensively. This is, in no small part, also Krčík’s doing — his 60% success rate in aerial duels inside his own box itself a vast improvement over his 24/25 success rate of 43% — while his contribution at the other end of the pitch was arguably an even bigger game-changer. He’s signed under 4 non-penalty set piece goals (himself scoring 3x) and Wyscout credits him with the second-most head shots on team (7). The leader? A fellow departee Abdallah Gning (8). Throw in Vecheta (5), and Karviná are left without most of its aerial firepower. Plus, Gning was of use defending set pieces, too, once outright preventing a goal.

While Lucky Ezeh offers up a big body upfront, it wouldn’t be a shock if Filip Prebsl — who’s been part of a set piece problem at both Boleslav and Liberec — struggles to replace Krčík.

The X-Factor
Wild West that is the Karviná on the road

In my five years of doing this, I don’t remember anything as wild as Karviná being the most dangerous travelling team to both their opponents and themselves, posting the highest xGF (1.48) hand-in-hand with the highest xGAExpected Goals Against (xGA) estimates how many goals a team should have conceded based on shot quality, location, and context. (1.66). The latter figure makes sense given that MFK spent 136 of 900 minutes on the road in man disadvantage; but that’s also what makes the former figure all the remarkable. Only Sparta (twice) tagged Liberec with more xGA this season than Karviná who were a man down since the 13th minute. No team has registered a higher xGF at Ďolíček than Karviná under Marek Jarolím (1.92); not even Jablonec or Plzeň making use of their own man advantage. No team including Sparta or Jablonec has done better at Baník; no team has caused more havoc at Zlín despite Liberec’s or Olomouc’s visits.

This all might feel a bit too anecdotal, but the bottom line is just too crazy to resist: Karviná’s away games have averaged opportunities amounting to 3.14 expected goals when the second highest road average stands at 2.66, and the league median would be roughly one xG lower.

As of now, just one other club is losing two members of their Top 5s over the winter, and in the case of Karviná, it’s the two very best players, for good measure. Of course, for any other club this would also be an unusual, if not unprecedented situation. But Karviná… they know their shit. Last winter, they were short three members of the Top 5, including the top scorer (Memić) and the top assist provider (Botos). Their next in line was also Jiří Fleišman, but then he was ranked 44th, whereas now five retained guys including himself fit inside Top 44.

Indeed, the depth is what makes this situation slightly more palatable compared to 2025.

While Krčík and Gning combine for a total of 24 goal contributions (10 and 14 respectively), the wild card man who closely follows in this respect (9) sits 8th on this MVP leaderboard. Both Krčík and Gning scored more important goals than anyone at MFK (5), but Štorman — joint-second in this respect — only checks in as the last member of the team’s Top 10.

And that’s even before we start accounting for playing time. Emmanuel Ayaosi is still a new star in Silesia, yet he’s less than 40 points behind Gning courtesy of the joint-most open-play chance-creating actions on team (22). The man who shares this title with him, Ebrima Singhateh, isn’t even a starter anymore and barely qualifies for a pizza chart as of today. Samuel Šigut, who was kept out of the line-up on 7 occasions, creates danger every 33 mins.

The Wild Card

As you can probably guess, Karviná boast loads of wild card candidates. Samkhou Camara is back for another run, and he’s been up for the official team of the week most often (7x). Albert Labík is strangely flowing under the radar while his colleagues are getting snapped up by his former employer, yet he’s right in the MVP mix too, with four vital assists to his name. My pick, however, goes to Denny Samko who’s finally getting credited with points (though only 2 of his 7 were banked in close game states) while averaging a remarkably high Deník Sport mark (6.4). As a former Hradec Králové protégé, let’s just diplomatically say he’s well positioned to keep earning the high praise from that particular newspaper’s writers. *wink*

The Shake-Up

Can Singhateh thrive at number 9? The answer pretty much must be “hell yeah”, because otherwise it’s more than risky to put all the eggs in Lucky Ezeh’s basket while Kahuan Vinicius returned from his loan stint to be immediately shoved aside to the reserves and Jan Fiala (also not a sure-fire bet for the centre forward role where he struggled at Sigma) continues his protracted recovery. With Karviná, there’s always a chance some Vít Valošek or Okiki Akinwande (both on 8 goals in Karviná’s U-19 return to the top flight) suddenly shows up to steal a top job, but the latter wasn’t even brought on board for the winter preparation.

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