Sigma certainly had an eventful summer. In place of the old divide between the fans and the club, a new supporters’ association SigmaFans was born out of their newfound connection, offering discounts on season tickets. Meanwhile, Pavel Hapal reluctantly doubled down on his role as general sporting manager by stepping in as interim coach. Local developer Redstone left the club as its platinum partner, and it was anything but an amicable break-up. Meanwhile, Pavel Hapal was busy pretending to search for a better coach than himself. The Hubáček family moved from the role of an unofficial backer to the club’s general partner, assuming majority ownership. Meanwhile, Pavel Hapal more than delivered on his promise to bring in a foreign coach by appointing two (plus a 24-year-old Czech) as his assistants after graciously agreeing to carry on as head coach for 26/27.

This summer was all about Pavel Hapal, you see, even though he wanted everyone to know he’d have hated for that to be the case. Now, the entire season could well be about him, too. At least initially, every one of Sigma’s performances will be studied under a microscope.

But here’s my irritation with all this: it’s commonly assumed Hapal cannot lose in this situation. Sure, no matter what happens, he’ll most likely keep his job. A lucrative one, no less. But if he now bombs as a coach, what exactly does that say about his qualities as a GSM?

Luckily for us, we don’t have to spend this entire introduction on Pavel Hapal alone. After all, it’s entirely possible he never had as much influence upstairs as his title suggested. The actual show-runner in Olomouc appears to be chairman Ondřej Navrátil, who is largely responsible for recruitment, while the club also employs a general manager (former captain Aleš Škerle) and a sporting manager (Ladislav Minář, seemingly coasting on inertia).

So yeah, Hapal is merely a part of an intricate structure. Hence me mentioning him a mere seven times, and most definitely never mentioning him again in this piece. I swear.

Looking back on 2025/26

What went right

After spending the entire autumn unable to finally improve on the offence with the old tools, Tomáš Janotka got some new ones over the winter — Danijel Šturm, Fabijan Krivak, even Peter Baráth — and the early returns were promising. Up until his sudden sacking following MDMatchday — different to Round (R) in that matchdays are in order, rounds get postponed, shuffled. 28, Sigma’s average xGFExpected Goals For (xGF) estimates how many goals a team should have scored based on shot quality, location, and context. from positional attacks jumped from an inadequate 0.6 to a solid spring 0.87, with attacking set pieces experiencing an even bigger leap (from 0.18 to 0.4).

As ever under Janotka, though, the big story of 25/26 was the defence. Even after you-know-who loosened up the structure, Sigma finished the season allowing the second-fewest shots from positional attacks (6.2 per game), snuffing out the second-highest share of such attacks before a shot could even occur (76.4%). Thus, their xG shares are Top 5 across the board.

What went wrong

Janotka never quite managed to strike the right balance. To that end, this statistical tidbit from late October speaks volumes; a club best at one end, a club second-worst at the other. Similarly, having as many as 25 different players with a point sounds awesome, until you realize that the most prolific point-getter was a loanee who left in winter (Daniel Vašulín), and even he failed to get into the double digits. To not have a single 10+ point player was Sigma’s standard between 2018-21, and it sure as hell wasn’t a sign of good times. In Janotka’s first campaign, there was a 20-point Kliment accompanied by a 15-point Zorvan. Big change.

Oh, and Sigma also became a true domestic cup rarity since the Czechoslovakia split.

Most valuable player

Per my MVP model (traditional stats): Abdoulaye Sylla (ranked 11th league-wide)
Per my positional models (advanced stats): Abdoulaye Sylla (88th overall percentile at CB)

Who would you rather listen to — Ludovico Einaudi, or Hans Zimmer? The answer to this seemingly irrelevant question might dictate who you’d rather pick as your Sigma MVP. If you’re more into calm minimalism, you may prefer the safe pair of hands belonging to Jan Koutný. If you’re more into grandiose spectacle, you may prefer the exhilarating but occasionally frustrating Abdoulaye Sylla. Both fit into the top 20% at their position. Both are seen by my MVP model as Top 25, each getting voted Deník Sport’s MotMMan of the Match, typically chosen by Deník Sport for the entire match — one from among both teams. three times.

Let’s start with the more exciting pick in Sylla. Apart from his build-up contribution and threat up front, where he ranks 8th overall, the Guinean actually grades out as average in the other three sets of metrics. That’s simply because of too much fluctuation. He was stunning in ground duels, but then he also won just 8 out of 23 aerial duels inside his own box. He made a lot of last-ditch interceptions and whatnot, but then he also fouled too much, including for two penalties. His spatial awareness showed well on possession-adjusted interceptions, but also led to one of the worst rates for pass completion under strong pressure. It must be incredibly hard to coach Sylla, for his ever-present surprise factor.

Jan Koutný also wasn’t afraid of the spectacular, pulling off 11 high-danger saves, but his campaign was more defined by his steadiness. Incredibly for the youngest regular among goalkeepers (and one of only two maturing ones), Koutný was only tagged for one goal out of 36 conceded, but he needs to improve in the sweeping department. He was typically quite hesitant when rushing off the line to intercept, and not too successful with actions far out of the box. His passes still don’t do much for stretching the play or gaining the danger zone.

Chip on the shoulder

In September, Michal Beran was on Cloud Nine. He was reporting for his first senior national team camp, soon interrupting it to bank a delicious new contract at Sigma, only to then make a debut and earn one of the few positive reviews following the tired draw with Saudi Arabia. At that point, he seemed like he might become our go-to choice as a deep distributor. But when the time came for the World Cup squad announcement, there was no buzz surrounding him and likely not even an outside chance of making it. The dream was over before it truly began, and what’s worse: even the biggest fans like me could see why.

In 24/25, to the surprise of no one, Beran was a fabulous ball progressor, but — to the surprise of many — he was also a very focused defender of space, committing a grand total of two fouls in the defensive third and allowing danger to develop by falling asleep just 6x. Now there were more cases of lacking concentration (12), but especially less consequential passing and ball-carrying. Even someone like Jakub Křišťan generated more net xTExpected Threat (xT) measures how the player increases the probability of scoring a goal by carrying or passing the ball., and Beran’s 26/27 opener suggested he’s still not in his usual headspace, eradicating any lingering doubts that perhaps he was just suffering from Breite-induced PTSD, having to carry him in 2025.

Inside the off-season

special thanks for guiding me through the motions of Sigma Olomouc’s off-season go out to @LKnajbl, Vít Komárek, Pan M, @tomas_ostransky, @MichalNeveril, @gregor_vaclav & @krokrocancan

Squad turnover

Two right backs, one winter arrival and e.g. Jáchym Šíp or Matěj Mikulenka. Sigma’s most utilized XI is frankly all over the place. Its only member leaving, Jiří Sláma (7th), was phased out so unapologetically towards the end of the season that it’s hard to even consider him a loss, whereas two most valuable departures by far merely hovered around the 1000-minute mark. Those would, of course, be the two near-namesakes: Daniel Vašulín and Danijel Šturm. They alone are the main reason why Olomouc are only retaining 60% of all primary chance-creating actions in 25/26 (only Bohemians were hit more) and losing 20 goals (14 from them).

Btw, it’s not just the most utilized XI that would make for a tricky Sporcle. It’s the list of all players used, as I’d for example completely forgotten Jan Navrátil still suited up for Sigma in 25/26, let alone that he was apparently good enough to log more minutes than Jan Kliment.

Biggest upgrade

Per Transfermarkt, there are now nine players atop the list of the most expensive arrivals ever who fit inside the new rich era. Only one of those arrived this summer (Marko Soldo), and while he might easily be considered an upgrade on the likes of Jiří Spáčil in the double pivot, that’s not where he’s used at the moment — and perhaps for longer, unless the latest addition of Daniel Barát or David Tkáč’s inspired summer eventually pushes him deeper.

Who I fancy as a more straightforward upgrade: curiously the youngest of the bunch, Stéphane Noumbissie. The 19-year-old played a key part in earning Lille’s reserve team the promotion to the 4th tier, while every now and then practicing with the A-team. Due to the presence of an option to buy, Noumbissie is a particularly intriguing catch and he left a mark on the pre-season, too, offering a towering presence at left (centre) back, lending a hand to a pair of goals against Al Ahli. According to some, he could push Louis Lurvink for playing time.

I don’t think he is leapfrogging Lurvink in particular, mostly because I feel like Olomouc fans are pre-wired to dislike him due to the whole transfer saga and some unconvincing performances. He’s a stud, though, and he’ll most likely show it with time. The one who seems more at risk, at least to me, is Jan Král. He’s also a leftie, and his upside doesn’t stretch beyond some pretty basic defending. On the ball and pace-wise, he looks fairly exploitable.

Biggest downgrade

It’s possible the loss gets mitigated by the slight tweak in formation where Sigma often looks a bit narrower, fielding two no. 10s who really don’t behave like wingers. Then again, even in this setup, it’s possible Danijel Šturm would end up being the best LWB and RAM option.

He’s that good.

Need left to be addressed

Speaking of LWB, it’s not like the starter’s role is any massive issue. Ahmad Ghali doesn’t look great (ie. too complex) when compared to wingers, but he would be firmly above average in the field of fullbacks — on his day still a pretty versatile cheat code in gaining the zone.

The bigger problem is the backup role. With Hapal solidly set on 3ATB3ATB means 3-at-the-back, ie. any formation with three centre backs and wingbacks, or alternatively, five defenders., neither Noumbissie nor Jakub Elbel would be considered a viable option for the wide position, and so the absence of Jiří Sláma looms large. He may have overstayed his welcome as a bona fide starter, and particularly frustrated everyone with his crossing choices, but he was still an enviable weapon as a passer. Incredibly, Sláma ranked in the top 10% for all of the following: cutbacks, line-breaking through balls (tops with 2.45 per game), horizontal stretch passes and meters gained via mostly vertical passing. Only Slavia FBs contributed more net xT per game.

New kid on the block

There might not be help on the way anytime soon; a weird sentence to utter when talking about Sigma’s famous pipeline. But the reality is that the U-19s were lucky to hold onto their top-tier status, receiving timely help from Radek Palán or Patrik Siegl (both b. 2007), who arguably should’ve instead played full-time roles for the reserves, themselves nowhere near promotion back to the second tier. As a result, Palán has got nearly 4000 minutes under his belt among his peers, but under 100 mins in MSFL. Siegl unfortunately isn’t all that much further, basically skipping the entire middle section of the senior third-tier campaign. Still, he tasted the top U-19 division at 15, and already wore the captain’s armband at 17. If anyone can jump straight into the deep end and not drown, it’s probably Siegl. After all, his partner from the U-19 national team, Jiří Míček, was named to both Baník starting line-ups so far.

Ultimately, more could be expected of the current U-17 crop, which finished the season as the top tier’s runners-up, while having two boys fit inside the Top 8 of goalscorers. Štěpán Jančík, a late 2009 birthday, curiously doesn’t have a single appearance for a national team.

Looking ahead to 2026/27

Below is the team’s current depth chart with a maximum of 4 alternatives for one position. The colourful ratings are a static snapshot of the league-wide situation on 21 July, and they are just a playful bit to add flavour to it; the names featured should be relevant to this day. To learn more about my approach to constructing depth charts, with all its limitations, head here.

Primary formation

This is it for now, but once starved for goals and/or box presence, Sigma may instantly switch to 3-4-1-2 while inserting Kliment or Hilmir Mikaelsson who reminds Michal of Chytil.

Colours I grappled with

With Jakub Elbel, somehow implicated in the match-fixing scandal, once again lifted out of the cold, the centre back depth looks even more respectable, but it must be said the colourful rating was assigned before Sparta signed Guddal. Now the two sit neck-and-neck.

Notes on the depth chart

Last year’s chip bearer, Matěj Mikulenka was coming off a weak finish to his breakout season that robbed him of the U-21 Euro. Now what he can lay on top: a weak full season as well. Mikulenka participated on 28 league matches, but for an average of 39 minutes, and that has killed any remaining semblance of momentum for him. Turning 23 in February and a perennial candidate for a change of scenery (Liberec were, and maybe still are, interested), Mikulenka is stuck behind a fair few players at his best position, and was even tested at RWB.

Collecting the same number of starts despite once looking like Sigma’s secret weapon in Europe particularly, Jáchym Šíp is also officially at a crossroads. He doesn’t even fit on the depth chart in the capacity of a LAM, while the unfamiliar left wingback role could be explored. He did more than Mikulenka, but remains a perimeter, not-too-smart player.

I can’t wait to see what sort of a pizza chart Peter Baráth can produce across a far bigger sample. His late runs into the box were a treat to watch, but we mostly got to witness them when the stakes were low for Sigma. Will he enjoy the same platform in 26/27, too?

Roster battle to follow

There is a lot of disrespect directed towards Matěj Hadaš on social media sites, so much so I kept seeing him highlighted as a case study in how ridiculously bloated the preliminary 55-man World Cup squad was. I’ll tell you what: he wasn’t there just because our pool is notoriously short on right wingback options, though I can’t deny that was at least part of the reason. The other part: no matter where you see his ceiling, he’s a player on the rise and those are normally worth motivating. Was he exposed at the U-21 Euro or in the Conference League? Absolutely. Did he go from a pointless campaign to a merely slightly more impactful one? Sure. Is he the most captivating player? I get it, he isn’t. But he took a step forward nearly all across the board, shooting up from the 53rd percentile to the 74th, and actually posted a borderline Top 10 open-play expected assist rate among fullbacks. He can still grow.

Pushing him to get better will once again be Filip Slavíček, another homegrown talent with a well-defined set of strengths that scores even more impressively than most would think. Both Hadaš and Slavíček are among the best defenders of their channel, but where the latter particularly excels is the proactivity and agility — stuff like blocked crosses, tackles or accelerations with the ball. Slavíček may never add a through ball to his arsenal, but he can be a joy to behold when carrying the ball upfield, gaining the fifth-most meters that way.

Sigma’s right-hand side generated xGF at the third-best rate per game, while allowing xGAExpected Goals Against (xGA) estimates how many goals a team should have conceded based on shot quality, location, and context. at the fourth-best rate, as well. There’s value in a balanced two-way game that isn’t too flashy. I like that Sigma are sticking to these two at the RWB position; fans are overly critical here.

Season forecast

Finally leaving the miserable covid era in the rear-view mirror, Sigma are no longer weighted down by the ghosts of the Latál past, and immediately roar back to 40+ points on the projections after landing on the disappointing 35. To be fair, Olomouc were losing Filip Zorvan and Jakub Pokorný, whereas over the past few months they’ve only bulked up.

Ultimately, returning to the Top 6 is the obvious goal this season and something Sigma do indeed achieve in most projections, even though there are a hefty six points separating them from 5th Jablonec, and conversely a mere 0.7 points separating them from 7th Liberec. I could see how especially the 23% chance of dropping to the relegation group may feel harsh.

Bold prediction

The track record: 1/5. Sigma’s longest unbeaten run wasn’t ended by Teplice, but their rivals

The prediction: Hadaš or Slavíček will start one of the UNL games in the fall

The rationale: Yup, I’m going there. While they were both injured to open the season, it shouldn’t be anything serious, and Douděra’s waiting game is arguably costing him much more. On top of that, my guess is that Santi Denia won’t be overly fond of Vladimír Coufal (who could still retire, if he’s self-aware enough) and will spend virtually all of 2026 searching for options. Believe it or not, the options don’t get any stronger, and I was already successful with a similar bold prediction back in 2021 when I was starting off, so why not try it again?

Then again, if we forget the nervous debut and finally give another chance to Adam Gabriel instead, I won’t be too mad. We just can’t go into this new era with the two mainstays.

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