Also available in Čeština (Czech)

Nobody expected this transition to be painless. Yet, nobody expected it to be quite this painful either. For the first 8 rounds, everybody was like “woo-hoo”, in for the ride that saw Mladá Boleslav pacing for over 55 regular-season goals scored, over 80 goals conceded, and a lousy but somewhat tolerable 30 points. Throughout the next six rounds (of two points), the reality set in and it all came crashing down, with coach Aleš Majer seemingly needing to receive some sort of a vote of confidence every two weeks. Now, with Majer more or less assured, team more or less set in their ways, it’s time to make progress.

The Outlook

The funny thing is that through all the near-sackings, Boleslav have largely remained faithful to its forecast. Up until Round 11, the reality and the expectation of our model were effectively locked in. Then the big diversion happened, but the eventual correction isn’t too pronounced. Sure, this time last year, the projection was getting a 4.5-point tune-up for an 18% chance of returning to UEFA comps, but that was with Kušej, Ladra, Stránský, Vydra or Mašek still putting in their work, most of them since replaced by inexperienced rookies. By the time Jakub ran the simulations this past summer, FKMB were an overwhelming candidate for the relegation group, which they remain to be — just, erm, even more overwhelmingly.

Ultimately, what matters is that the rebuilding Mladá Boleslav don’t feel and seem in actual danger, courtesy of the four-point finish over the last two autumn rounds which really do a lot of heavy-lifting here. In the end, the relegation threat got a modest 3% bump and the remaining schedule doesn’t look too bad. Boleslav have all of Bohemians, Teplice, Pardubice and Dukla at home, which should turn into a few points. They have already beaten two of those in their own backyard, so why not repeat it. It’s still more likely than not that FKMB face some sort of a trouble (ca. 33% chance of participating in the relegation play-offs on top of the relegation odds above), and every point matters in this multi-way race for survival.

Peak Gain: Teplice 3:2 (away) / Zlín 3:1 (home)
Peak Loss: Karviná 2:4 (home) / Olomouc 1:4 (home)

Toughest Assignments Left: Slavia (A), Jablonec (H), Liberec (A)
Softest Assignments Left: Dukla (H), Pardubice (H), Bohemians (H)

The Big Question
Can they sustain error-free play without sacrificing fluidity?

Through Round 13, Boleslav’s relentless playing out of the back was a constant source of disaster. Majer’s team conceded an incredible 9 goals and 13 more wasted chances via turnovers deep inside their own half. The second-worst output in this area, at that point in time, was 3 goals and 9 chances. Through R13, (mostly) Boleslav’s relentless playing out of the back cost them 8 times on the scoresheet; still the joint-highest total of goal errors now.

Since then, there has been no pass or otherwise lost possession leading up to a goal conceded, and it isn’t just a pure coincidence. Especially since Jiří Floder was re-instated as the number 1, there has been a visible shift towards risk-averse play deeper down the pitch that contributed to Boleslav not getting thrashed by both Sparta and Plzeň who actually did put a combined 8 goals past Aleš Mandous earlier this term. That said, the sudden emphasis on caution ahead of adventure has also taken its toll on the team’s attacking output. Boleslav simply couldn’t figure out Dukla, and were lucky to score and bank a point vs Hradec.

Now the challenge is to find the right balance.

The X-Factor
Combination of factors making balls fly in the goal at ease

I probably won’t shock you when I tell you it’s been far too easy to score on Mladá Boleslav. There have already been 7 instances on which Mandous or Floder conceded 3+ goals, which is a lot; for reference, 2024-25 Dukla, bound for relegation play-off, registered 8 of such instances across the whole 35-game season. This year’s versions of Dukla, Slovácko and Baník all combine for 8 such leaky defensive performances. It is a real problem corresponding to the highest non-penalty xGAExpected Goals Against (xGA) estimates how many goals a team should have conceded based on shot quality, location, and context. per game (1.39) without a true rival (Hradec is already at 1.26).

What’s at fault? Now that’s the trickier part.

Boleslav are curiously very adept at defending the gate, suffocating 55.9% of all attempts to enter their penalty area from open play (4th best), but when you already get there, you are free to run riot. Boleslav concede a goal for every 5.5th entry (16th), on average seeing the opponents waste only 5.9 chances before proceeding to score per my notes (also 16th).

Could the goalkeepers — and especially Mandous with his 5.5 goals allowed above expectation — have bailed out their teammates more often? Absolutely. But there are natural limits to what a human goalkeeper can do, and Boleslav have been more than testing them this season, allowing opponents to shoot from up close more gladly than anyone (on average pulling the trigger 17.04 meters from goal), which has resulted in the highest xGA per non-penalty shot (0.11). At the same time, the opposing finishers have put together a solid collective shift, outshooting their pre-shot xG by 4.3 goals per xGSExpected Goals Scored (xGS) only takes shots on target into account, including their power and placement on top of xGF., placing FKMB goalkeepers in a precarious position where an average shot on target carries a value of 0.39 xGS. That’s quite an expectation, made worse by 7 penalties (all converted), with the third highest average value already down to 0.31. We touched upon Mandous having to do too much in his short FKMB stint in summer, and the workload/difficulty of challenge also partly explains why Jakub Lapeš of Karviná or Dominik Holec of Baník have looked far more ordinary in 25/26. Holec went from facing an average of 1.12 xGA² per game to 1.35; big deal.

Now it’s not unimaginable that at least one of these things regresses to the mean. Maybe it’s the goalkeeper catching fire, or the adversaries catching a cold. Or maybe shots start hitting the woodwork instead, curiously another area where MB are due some luck (saved only 2x).

Now this is interesting. A goalkeeper, of all people, sits atop the leaderboard? Jiří Floder has been no magician on the goal-line, turning in 5 positive shifts per prevented goals and only appearing as the 4th best shot stopper because the likes of Koutný, Holec or Hanuš bizarrely tanked their autumns towards the very end of it. But unless you’ve been taking notes like I have, you may have easily missed how much of a difference-maker Floder has been above the goal-line, making vital high claims, low interceptions and rushes far out of the goal.

Still, it doesn’t sound right and it could be wise to expect Floder to drop down as he continues starting, with the 11-game sample favouring him in a few areas such as the average Deník Sport mark (5.9). The thing is, who are his actual challengers now that Matyáš Vojta is gone? If you stopped following somewhere around Round 4, you’d probably bet on Roman Macek, David Pech or Solomon John, but they are all between 200 and 300 MVP points behind Floder courtesy of lost starting role or longterm injury (Pech). Michal Ševčík has participated on 6 important strikes of his own team but also caused two penalties and one other goal. It’s still true FKMB’s defence only goes as far as Martin Králik carries it, but he too has delivered two glorious fuck-ups leading to goals. It’s been a bit of a shitshow.

The Wild Card

In a bit of a crapshoot, I went for someone who wrapped up the fall as a promising left wing(back) choice but ended up accumulating playing time worth just over five starts. Regardless, Martin Šubert does carry sizeable potential to continue picking up MVP points, chipping in to 10 wasted chances and scoring one goal already. He’s a gifted offensive player who was in the middle of his breakout campaign at Vlašim under Majer when he got snapped up by Baník Ostrava midway through 24/25. He should have the necessary coach’s trust.

The Shake-Up

It was always going to be difficult to replace Matyáš Vojta and his 9 important goal contributions (including 7 important points), but it’s only going to be harder if the status quo up top persists. Jan Buryán, back from his loan stint at Táborsko, was a game-breaker in the 3rd tier last season and again in the 2nd tier this season (5+2 in 9 appearances), but even if he was to continue his rapid ascension at 20 years old, he mostly did it from the left or right wing. Jiří Klíma, meanwhile, didn’t travel to Turkey due to a late autumn injury. Boleslav have received goals from 11 different players this term, as many as Sparta or Jablonec have, and this sort of scoring by committee seems to be the only feasible way forward, as well.

Enjoyed the text or the visuals, but don’t care for 🇨🇿 translations and dashboards? No worries, you can still support us by inviting us for a symbolic pint at the old BuyMeACoffeeBeer page.