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It started off much like last year. Six losses out of the first 7, three of them very unlucky. Stuck on only one win until Round 11. In 2024, it was seven losses out of the first 8, five of them undeserved, but at least by Round 11, Teplice were already on three victories. It’s therefore a little wonder FKT ended up improving their forecast, following up on Pardubice suitably with their own three-win conclusion of 2025 which completely changed the season’s complexion for them, giving the team a bit of breathing space.

The Outlook

It bears repeating, for the sake of perspective, that when Jakub first ran the simulations for Czech Footy in summer 2022, Teplice were entering the season as by far the biggest relegation candidate (68%; even Budějovice of 2024 earned “only” a 52% likelihood of going down). Since then, the club may have not been progressing at a neck-breaking pace, and as fast as some fans would wish, but they have moved into a much safer territory nonetheless. That it’s now basically a coin flip between them landing in the middle group and staying in the bottom 6 is a huge testament to Zdenko Frťala’s steady leadership. Going into his first full season in charge (2023), Teplice were granted a 9% chance of sitting outside the relegation group come post season (which they ultimately did). After averaging 0.9 regular-season points per game in 21/22, Teplice are now at 1.1 despite sitting on only a pair of victories as late as in mid-November. That spring, Teplice participated on a relegation play-off against Tomáš Zlatohlávek and his Vlašim; something that is now a distant memory (<8% odds).

Peak Gain: Dukla 3:1 (away) / Bohemians 3:0 (home)
Peak Loss: Zlín 1:3 (home)

Toughest Assignments Left: Jablonec (A), Plzeň (A), Sparta (H)
Softest Assignments Left: Dukla (H), Pardubice (A)

The Big Question
Have Teplice done enough over the winter to create more?

The Daniel Trubač-Petr Kodeš swap makes sense from a couple of points of view — Trubač most likely wasn’t going to commit to Teplice longterm and Kodeš is a homegrown talent + a rugged leader — but it feels like the team’s resignation on any attempt to become more capable of controlling games. Unless Jan Fortelný suddenly remembers who he used to be (which this winter preparation isn’t any indication of), Teplice will have even less ball-playing midfielders after swapping Richard Sedláček for the 229 mins of him. Even this version of Trubač playing to roughly 30-40% of his abilities and potential plausibly brings more value on the ball than any version of Kodeš whose greatest weapon is a blind long-range pass.

And that is potentially a big big issue because if Teplice currently need anything, it’s the enhancement of their build-up qualities. Teplice create under 0.2 xGFExpected Goals For (xGF) estimates how many goals a team should have scored based on shot quality, location, and context. per game down each of the three channels monitored (right, left, centre), which makes them better than only one side in the league whose endless cluelessness we’ve already covered (Dukla). In terms of controlling the xG flow when both sides are locked in against each other (the so-called positional attacking), Teplice are back to 39% share from Frťala’s first season (23/24) after taking a significant leap to 52% last term. It’ll take a giant step forward for Teplice to catch up to their balanced 24/25 scoreline accounting for positional attacks (24:26), now at 7:14.

In the end, Teplice can only thank the four penalties fetching a total of 5 points, because they just don’t have much to offer otherwise. Per non-penalty xGF, they are dead last at 0.76 generated per game. That’s not only down from 1.03 in 24/25, but also down from 0.99 in 23/24 when Teplice still ranked 16th. They should be adding creativity, not subtracting it.

The X-Factor
Friendly goalframe margins

Over the entire fall, only Teplice had the pleasure of dealing with zero goalpost adversity per Wyscout. When I briefly mentioned it in a recent podcast, a friend of Czech Footy got in touch to half-jokingly point out that only in the lead-up to the most recent game-winning goal vs Slovácko, both the bar and the left post rang. He was correct, but the bar was hit by Nyarko inadvertently in a clearance attempt (not a shot per Wyscout) and the post was barely scratched on the way to the net, so it also doesn’t count. Thus, the bottom line remains: whenever Teplice actually meant it, no shot of theirs was actually saved by the woodwork, whereas at the other end of the pitch, the situation was vastly different — still favourable.

It’s not only that Teplice were saved by the woodwork a record 13 times — four more than the next team, Dukla — but also when those divine interventions arrived. In their first win of the season (R2 Bohemians), the Deus ex Machina stepped in to prevent a fresh one-goal lead, which ended up being the difference. Two games later, the woodwork denied Slovácko their equalizer two times before finally giving way. In R9-R10, a total of 3 timely interventions helped produce Teplice’s second and third clean sheet on the year. In R12, Liberec could’ve started the second half with an opening goal, but soon went down by one instead because of you-know-what. Bohemians nearly bagged a late equalizer in R17, but the bar said “nah”. Slovácko were then close to celebrate first — no, Teplice did 20 minutes later to no response.

You can’t quite put a price on this sequence of events, and it’s fair to say the 3 times Teplice were saved against Slavia did dogshit for their 25/26 prospects, but it’s clear the karma has been on their side for a while. And as it normally goes with karma: proceed with caution.

For someone who’s banged his drum for about 3 years now, the 25/26 MVP leaderboard is a huge vindication. In 23/24, Denis Halinský was still a hipster’s pick as one of the top centre backs. He was merely an emerging force back then at Pardubice. Midway through 25/26, he is undeniable. Skipping only two Slavia games for obvious reasons, Teplice averaged a very solid 0.94 non-penalty xGAExpected Goals Against (xGA) estimates how many goals a team should have conceded based on shot quality, location, and context. per his game (a Top 5 mark, if only it worked that way), while he was a net positive force at the back 11 times. And even if you scoff at average Deník Sport mark as any sort of a measuring stick, the fact Halinský is at 6.2 (out of 10) after 17 ninety-minute appearances is nothing short of amazing. For reference, Kliment was at 6.1 in 24/25.

There’s effectively no other frontrunner, just a runaway leader, but I’ll always gladly spare a good word for Michal Bílek and his 5 important goals, Matej Riznič as one of the more complete (and surprising) fullbacks in the league, and especially Matouš Trmal for his remarkable in-season recovery. After a 3-goal performance against his old club Mladá Boleslav (R7), his position as the goalkeeper no. 1 seemed untenable. He’d allowed 5.25 goals above expectations, committing two glaring errors of massive cost. Since then, he’s kept 6 clean sheets and prevented 2.88 prevented goals, only screwing up slightly once vs Slavia.

The Wild Card

Another 25/26 late bloomer of sorts, Matěj Radosta has only truly established himself as Teplice’s go-to starter on one of the flanks following Round 11, but he’s done so with real conviction. People will complain about his persistent lack of points (1+0), but the fact is he’s also contributed to four other important goals — albeit indirectly — which added over four points to Teplice’s bank. That’s far from nothing, much like Radosta’s 6 primary chance-creating actions, which actually lead the offensively starved team. He could truly pop.

The Shake-Up

We’ve been through the midfield swap, and one potentially mitigating factor of its effect could bear the name of Tomáš Zlatohlávek. He’s shown more than flashes of a creative withdrawn forward in his (Pardubice) career, and if he manages to replicate that here, serving Matěj Pulkrab up front, the threat generation of the entire team may improve as a result, too.

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