2025/26 winter stocktake: FK Jablonec

posted in Mid-Season Stocktakes on by
image source: fkjablonec.cz

Here we go again. Last winter, the model had to correct itself by a whopping 11.6 points with Jablonec. Then, after the overperforming team actually improved its underlying numbers and point pace in the spring, Jablonec received a 48-point projection worthy of another Top 5 spot. So of course they proceeded to up the ante further, warranting yet another winter forecast glow-up — and hardly insignificant at that — while jumping ahead of Plzeň both in the real and model’s standings. Is it time to start ignoring the xG Gods?

The Outlook

For more information on what’s behind the forecasts, head here.

At some point, it’s plain stubborn to keep refusing to believe the hype while pointing at some magic numbers beneath the surface, and we are at least slowly getting there with Jablonec. A year ago, there was more than one good reason to be cautious; this was, after all, still a team that only won 6 regular season games in the preceding season. Nowadays, it’s increasingly difficult to look at Jablonec’s stellar point pace and shrug it off. After all, great forwards routinely outpace their xG, and great teams routinely outperform their xP. Slavia earned 9.5 extra points last term, theoretically making for the 4th greatest overperformers, and nobody batted an eyelid. They are the 2nd biggest overperformers now, and hardly anyone would take offence at that. Sparta of 23/24 were deserving of 72.6 points per Wyscout, and no one was seen complaining about their actual gain of 87 points. Maybe Jablonec are just… great.

An essential part of the rosy forecast above is Jablonec’s softest schedule of all: they are sitting pretty at 3rd despite, incredibly, taking care of both their matchups with Slavia, Plzeň and Hradec, welcoming the rest of the current Top 8 at home (Olomouc, Liberec, Karviná) until they head to Sparta’s Letná to close out the regular season — when a top campaign of theirs could/should be all but sealed. Much like we predicted a smooth sailing for an overperforming Jablonec to restart the season this time last year (and FKJ did end up winning three of the first four spring rounds), it’s easy to expect it again… and lasting longer.

Ultimately, Jablonec are clearing the 55-point bar inside the regular season in over half of all simulations, even though they’ve actually done it just once since 2017/18 (deep in the covid years), sitting a daunting 20 points away from the threshold as recently as three years ago.

Luboš Kozel can’t ever get enough credit for this amazing turnaround.

Peak Gain: Liberec 2:0 (away)
Peak Loss: Zlín 1:3 (home)

Toughest Assignments Left: Sparta (A), Liberec (H)
Softest Assignments Left: Dukla (A), Slovácko (H)

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The Big Question
Do Jablonec have something of a fitness issue?

We don’t need to bang the drum about how Jablonec own 10.4 extra points compared to what xP dictates, or that they were (on average) 37% likely to win in their 10 victorious games. But what’s interesting to dissect is specifically the club’s 10-game unbeaten start to the season where they accumulated an 11-point cushion over their xP, taking 24 points from performances worthy of 13. Over that span, FKJ incredibly were up at half-time in 9 cases, scoring 10 more goals than the opposition despite not even holding a two-xG lead at the same time. They ended up not winning just a pair of those games and have generally done very well in advantageous situations, turning a total of 13 leads into a 10-3-0 season record.

Now, if you’re asked to chase the game from the start of the second half so rarely (exactly three times this season), it makes sense you sometimes take the foot off the pedal after the break. It makes less sense, though, to take both of them off — like FKJ have so often done.

It’s one thing to be a Dukla or a Zlín and routinely get hemmed in after coming out of the dressing room to restart the game; it’s another thing altogether to have the worst chance differential between the 46th and 60th minute (minus-38) as a legitimate Top 3 candidate. We talked about how Baník’s awful first halves are very much what led them to the dark pit they currently find themselves in; so it’s pretty astonishing to note Jablonec are pacing for 16 regular-season wins while putting out even worse 2nd-half efforts (minus-90 vs minus-82). From a team that has yet to have a player sent off, the finding somehow hits you even harder.

Is our league genuinely becoming so conditioned that Kozel’s teams’ famous and persistent lack of intensity and kilometres clocked is slowly starting to catch up with them — even if not yet on the scoresheet? Or is it just good ol’ complacency in the light of all those HT leads?

See explanatory notes on what each section represents

The X-Factor
Riding the favourable shooting percentages hard

Excellent teams normally succeed on the back of a high PDO — the sum of a team’s shooting and save percentages — and not in spite of it. At least that was true of the great Slavia teams of years past. Jablonec of 25/26 is somewhere in the middle, converting on the third highest percentage of shots (13.9%) but getting set back by sub-par goalkeeping (11th in terms of prevented goals, slightly worse — 13th — in terms of the more traditional save percentage). It is, however, a different combination of two metrics that doesn’t yet have an acronym, which helps explain Jablonec’s peculiar success. It’s the combination of both shooting percentages.

While Jablonec’s own (post-shot) xGS beats its (pre-shot) xGF by 2.5 goals, making for the fourth deadliest trigger in the league, their opponents are underhitting their collective xGF by 3.8 goals, sitting dead last in effectiveness. Now, since it’s pretty rare for a shot on goal to carry a smaller xGS value compared to its xGF value, this basically means Jablonec’s adversaries are too often found missing the target altogether. That is indeed the case, since Hanuš only had to deal with 24.8% of all projectiles; the second lowest share stands at 32%.

This is, crucially, something Jablonec don’t have under their control — so it can change in an instant. They have done well forcing shots from afar or the perimeter, but not better than 5 other teams in the league. As of now, they’ve mostly just been lucky, with only three more sets of opponents (of Liberec, Slovácko, Zlín) even underhitting their xGF in the first place.

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The MVP Race Frontrunners

Jablonec have posted a truckload of clean sheets and they are also very well set in their defensive ways, so that explains most of the Top 5. Nemanja Tekijaški oversaw 9, Filip Novák 8 and Martin Cedidla 7. They are also usually scored high by Deník Sport markers, earning something between 5.8 and 6.0 on average, which signals some insane consistency with the amount of playing time they’ve all received. The seven points between them also don’t hurt.

Still, as long as Ebrima Singhateh dwells in Karviná, it’s enticing to favour either Jan Chramosta or Alexis Alégué who have caused some tremendous damage from both wings, with a bit of a caveat. The veteran, (in)famously carried by his 3 Deník Sport MotM titles and 7 goals all the way to the national team, only notched two of his 12 goal contributions following his 6 October call-up. The mercurial Togolese, meanwhile, started strong and finished strong — with a literal black hole in between. He’s still signed under 8 vital goals in a mere 12 starts as the team’s foremost primary chance creator (9), so I’d personally fancy him.

The Wild Card

No need to overthink it: ranked 49th league-wide, Lamin Jawo would walk right into twelve other Top 5s (only Slavia, Karviná and Plzeň couldn’t fit him in) and would straight up lead two boards (Baník and Slovácko). With Jan Hanuš not far behind, Jablonec possess the most top-heavy leaderboard out there, with little depth beyond their Top 8 or so. Jawo himself has chipped in to second-most goals on the team (11), delivering 6.3 EPA in the process. With an average Deník Sport mark of 6.2, he’s the most consistent Jablonec player still on their books.

The Shake-Up

Kozel is on record saying he didn’t want to mess with what’s worked so far, and so the club is most likely smart in bringing back its former left back Eduard Sobol. The Ukrainian is soon turning 31 and his previous address probably flatters him a bit too much (he didn’t actually play in Ligue 1 since March), but it’s still wiser to bank on him turning the 14th-ranked left channel into something more than handing the keys to unproven Lukáš Penxa. At his peak, Sobol was able to contribute both ways, while Jablonec’s left-hand side is actually bottom 5 per both positional xGF and xGA, with Matěj Polidar injured at two points of the season.

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2025/26 winter stocktake: FK Jablonec

posted in Mid-Season Stocktakes on by

I don’t think we’d had such a situation before: a cup-winning coach needing a public vote of confidence just half a year after delivering the unexpected trophy and Top 6 placement, having just secured the Conference League’s next phase (with all the luck in the world on his side, granted) for the first time in club’s history and outperformed its league projection (a conservative one, granted) to a considerable degree. Unusual, but perhaps increasingly more common now with the flurry of rich owners. The scope of one club’s potential today may look very different in a few months. Thus, Tomáš Janotka is suddenly looking at a prove-it spring despite proving himself at almost every step of the way so far.

The Outlook

For more information on what’s behind the forecasts, head here.

Despite earning 43 regular-season points where 38.2 were projected for them in summer 2024, Olomouc didn’t get a glowing forecast a year later. Courtesy of the twin departure of Jakub Pokorný and Filip Zorvan, coupled with the longterm injury to their talismanic shooter Jan Kliment, Sigma were suddenly looking at 35 projected points and a greater likelihood to go down than return to UEFA competitions. In that light, slashing their prospects of even forming the bottom 6 to a mere 4% must be seen as success, much like Olomouc being on track to more or less repeat their 24/25 regular-season feat (points-wise). They’ve done OK.

The perspective is key: Bohemians of 23/24, after their own (much briefer) European adventure, were good for 36.3 points at Christmas. In a more relatable example, Slovácko of 22/23 were projected to earn 43.8 points after a full autumn spent battling on multiple fronts, including the continental one. Their chance at returning to UEFA competitions was much higher then (33%), but that was also due to them still being alive in MOL Cup — possibly the only real, entirely unjustifiable failure of Janotka’s side. Of course, Sigma now have a rich owner and general sporting manager in full swing; something they didn’t have in place in summer, and which now means more urgency with regards to the rest of the season. The Top 6 — somehow a rather unlikely prospect at 22% — will be seen as the bar to clear.

Peak Gain: Jablonec 2:0 (home) / Boleslav 4:1 (away)
Peak Loss: Zlín 0:5 (away)

Toughest Assignments Left: Slavia (A), Plzeň (H), Jablonec (A)
Softest Assignments Left: Boleslav (H), Bohemians (H), Slovácko (H)

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The Big Question
Can set pieces, part of a great xGF struggle, get going again?

Janotka’s Sigma continues to be a consistently solid defensive side, with its non-penalty xGA ranking 3rd and all three channels (left, right, centre) landing inside the Top 5 for positional defending. On average, Olomouc’s opponents only get to finish 5.8 times per game from positional attacks, the second best mark in the league. The off-the-ball structure never died.

What Janotka has now decidedly failed to impose is a consistently working plan on the ball, resulting in the second-lowest average non-penalty xGF (0.8) last season, along with the league-worst central channel getting shut out on a record 8 occasions, and only more of the same this season — where 0.81 non-penalty xGF is somehow good for 13th place instead of 15th, and an even worse output down the middle (0.12 xGF per game compared to 0.16 in 24/25) is enough for 15th instead of dead last. Sigma have still been toothless offensively.

The thing about the two versions of Janotka’s Olomouc: one had attacking set pieces on steroids, the other very obviously doesn’t. Last winter, Sigma led the league with 7 corner kick and overall 12 set piece goals, which translated into a full-season output of 17 goals despite only earning 12th best average xGF. This winter, they have yet to score following a corner kick even once, producing a league-worst 0.18 xGF/game from non-penalty set pieces. Currently, they are on a 14-game drought without a single set piece goal, while averaging a poor 0.6 wasted set-piece chances over the stretch (only Teplice have been less prolific).

Why the sudden change?

First of all, the 24/25 rates were clearly unsustainable, so some sort of regression was basically a given. But the fact it’s from one extreme to another — instead of the more common mild drop — is furthermore a product of Zorvan’s departure, not compensated by Dominik Janošek’s arrival after all (he assisted on one of the set piece goals earlier in the season before effectively vanishing), as well as Jiří Sláma’s absence later on in the fall.

See explanatory notes on what each section represents

The X-Factor
Andrův stadion doing the heavy-lifting

Olomouc still have six home stands to go on the regular season and the line-up is frankly not the most frightening: Hradec, Plzeň, Bohemians, Karviná, Boleslav, Slovácko. That’s excellent news, because if something went (better than) according to plan for Sigma this past autumn, it was their showings at Andrův stadion. Slavia, Sparta, Jablonec and Liberec all combined for a measly 2.76 xGF in Olomouc, setting up the scene for Sigma’s splending average of two points per home game (Top 3 mark) and an even more formidable 80% share of all goals scored at ‘Andrák’ (second Slavia are “only” responsible for 75.8% of all goals Eden has seen).

This record is, as you’d expect, mostly powered by the defence. Olomouc have remarkably only conceded twice at home (8:2 score), with all but one of their clean sheets occurring in Haná. Accordingly, Sigma have posted the league’s best average home xGA (0.53) and must now look to improve their offensive output from the 13th-ranked 1.00 xGF per home game.

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The MVP Race Frontrunners

The peculiar thing about the two Sigma MVP frontrunners is that they don’t tend to fuck up often, but when they do, it either comes in bunches (for Aboulaye Sylla), or it properly stings (for Jan Koutný). One more aspect: our overall impression of both is heavily influenced by their (sometimes sub-par) continental performances which naturally don’t factor in here.

Sylla had exactly four poor games all season, which is not many, but in two of those he was a necessary half-time sub while acting out as a walking red card (Mladá Boleslav and Dukla), while on another instance he did actually get sent off (Plzeň). That’s not what a coach wants from their defender no. 1, even if Sylla ended up preventing danger far more often than facilitating it (38 vs 18 times), outright denying a goal three times. As for Koutný, he costed Sigma even less on balance, being all over the place in the first Sparta encounter (much like Sylla) and then screwing up in the Zlín debacle when Olomouc were already 100% screwed.

Other than that, all was rosy for the duo who most likely fight it out for the MVP crown till the end. With Daniel Vašulín departing, the closest rivals are Matěj Hadaš, who’s at least no longer pointless (four goal contributions) but still hardly inspiring as an MVP candidate, and fellow fullback Jiří Sláma, with both facing a challenge for playing time from Filip Slavíček.

The Wild Card

With about four winter arrivals able to play on the right or left wing, one cannot be sure how strong a position Ahmad Ghali will hold coming into 2026, but you’d imagine that pretty strong based on what he did with the limited amount of playing time in 2025. Across what totals a mere 5.5 starts, the former Liberec star delivered 3.11 expected points to his team via primary goal contributions alone (two goals, one assist), all the while being a primary creator of five more wasted chances. That may not seem like many, but when I tell you only Simion Michez has done better (8, in only 6.3 stars — another great output), it kinda does, doesn’t it?

The Shake-Up

No club has undergone a more ground-shifting shake-up and you can mostly see the thinking behind it. Sigma needed a better partner to Michal Beran than Radim Breite, and they most likely got him in Péter Baráth. Sigma needed more options for the no. 10 with David Tkáč out longterm, and they got those in foreign wild cards Fabijan Krivak and Dario Grgić or the returning hero of 22/23 Antonín Růsek. Sigma needed cover for if Kliment doesn’t come back strong, and they got that in Václav Sejk or John Paul Dembe. They’ve arguably overdone it in quantity at some positions, and money dished out too, but you can’t argue with the broad reasoning. What will be especially interesting to follow, though, is how Olomouc cope in some variation of a three-at-the-back formation Janotka has been testing throughout the winter camp (and is not accustomed to deploying throughout his career).

CF

Enjoyed the text or the visuals, but don’t care for 🇨🇿 translations and dashboards? No worries, you can still support us by inviting us for a symbolic pint at the old BuyMeACoffeeBeer page.

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