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This and last season have got a peculiar common denominator for Slovan Liberec: a home autumn loss to arch rivals from Jablonec nad Nisou, after which alarm bells began blaring around coach Radoslav Kováč. The key difference lies in the reaction. After getting blown out of the water in 2024 (0:5), Liberec proceeded to limp forward, winning just three of their remaining nine games of the year. In 2025, Slovan used the 0:2 loss as a springboard to launch a convincing comeback, utterly demolishing all their November opponents to bring Kováč his first Coach of the Month honours of his career. Now, entering 2026 on the league’s longest active point streak outside Slavia, they “just” need a suitable follow-up…

The Outlook

Over the four years of summer forecasts, the model has been pretty consistent with Liberec, giving them a 37-56% chance of forming the Top 6 and a 19-39% chance of returning to Europe. These days, those average percentages pale in comparison to what Liberec not only gets from the model, but presumably also from most people in the Chance Liga business; starting with fans, ending with fellow club boards. Only 17% likelihood of falling behind one of Olomouc, Hradec or Zlín sounds about right, especially since the hardest opponent still coming to U Nisy before the table split is either Ostrava or Hradec (depending on how optimistic/pessimistic you feel about both). The 56% likelihood of snatching the 5th UEFA slot feels about right, too, given that the entire Top 4 is still alive in MOL Cup (thus increasing the odds of the slot falling to the league) and your biggest rival is then a weakened Karviná.

Make no mistake: however you rate Kováč, this is a story of great Slovan rehabilitation. In 2022, a Liberec side some 18 months removed from facing Hoffenheim in Europa League was only fancied to reclaim its UEFA spot in 19% of simulations and to earn 50+ regular-season points even more rarely (17%). Today, having more or less rebuilt the entire roster over the past 18 months, Slovan crawl over that exact same bar in roughly 1/3 of all simulations.

Simply put: last winter, Slovan were a club in transition and they performed like that. This January, Slovan are a club on track to become a Top 6 staple, and they behave like that.

Peak Gain: Ostrava 2:0 (away)
Peak Loss: Jablonec 0:2 (home)

Toughest Assignments Left: Slavia (A), Plzeň (A), Jablonec (A)
Softest Assignments Left: Slovácko (H), Boleslav (H)

The Big Question
Can U Nisy become a true fortress as the schedule eases?

The fact Liberec have mined as many wins at home as they have on the road (4) shouldn’t be taken lightly; it’s potentially the club’s ticket to Europe. While only earning the 10th-highest share of xG at their own stadium, Liberec have scored the 3rd-largest portion of goals at home (65%) thanks to a Top 5 defence per xGAExpected Goals Against (xGA) estimates how many goals a team should have conceded based on shot quality, location, and context., and despite facing 6/7s of Top 8 opposition.

As of now, the (superficial) reasons behind Liberec’s success this season are quite clear: it’s the improved consistency, as they are already sporting their second six-game streak without a loss (having put together two 4-game ones at best over the entire 24/25), and especially the consistency with which they’ve so far dispatched lower-quality opponents. From their 10 matchups with bottom-half teams, Liberec only lost one in R6 (with Zlín, who were better than that), taking 63% of the available points. Once you zero in on the current bottom 6 only, their record reads an even more solid 5-3-0. Now compare that to 24/25 when Liberec faced three bottom-half opponents in a row at three separate points of the season, and never got out of those with a pair of victories; the maximum being 5 points of the possible 9 (twice).

It’s true that, courtesy of the late-season surge, Slovan still wrapped up that regular season while taking 62.5% of all available points in facing the teams placed 9th and lower. But that’s where the scheduling factor comes into play: Liberec now boast the same percentage while looking at a 6-game home stretch that should theoretically fetch something between 12-15 points. If such a prospect materializes, Slovan will be at 42 pts without even doing anything on the road; the same amount they earned in 24/25 which left them just a hair below Top 6.

The X-Factor
Sustained brilliance of the Icha-powered right-hand side

Ahmad Ghali, Petr Hodouš, Afolabi Soliu, Patrik Dulay. For the total of 10 games he opened as a starter at fullback, that’s quite a cast of right and left wingers for Marek Icha, with 3/4s of it playing a grand total of 119 minutes combined on this position at this level prior to 25/26.

Yet, through it all, Icha has lowkey delivered the goods. Over the 10 games he started at RB, Liberec averaged 0.27 xGFExpected Goals For (xGF) estimates how many goals a team should have scored based on shot quality, location, and context. per game down the right side, which would rank 3rd league-wide, owning 53% of all xG generated down that channel (good for Top 6). Without the coach’s favourite, the average drops to 0.18 xGF (12th) and the xG share shrinks to just 38% (14th).

Now, you’d be wise to point out numbers do not quite work this way — with the matchups not being equal etc. etc. — and you could also highlight Icha’s switch to the left soon after the Karviná demolition kicked off, with a majority of the right-sided xGF being generated from that point on. But it’s important to note that A) Icha’s sample still includes double headers vs Sparta and Olomouc, and B) Liberec was off to a sensational start against Karviná before his transition, aided by Icha’s open-play assist to Krollis’ opener and another two big chances.

While a small sample, it’s indeed no coincidence Icha’s return as a starter immediately ended Slovan’s three-game skid and brought the 4-game sequence of a combined 14:0 scoreline. It was, in no small part, Icha’s attacking contributions that meant Liberec’s adversaries were peppered with an average of 15 shot attempts and 8 shots on goal over those four matches.

He’s not always never easy on the eye, and his defensive game remains to be in dire need of cleaning up (the 18 times he got bypassed for a wasted chance lead the team), but rest assured opposing defences take a particular note anytime Icha lines up to patrol a sideline.

For a European aspirant, this below is not the most inspiring MVP leaderboard. Only two offensive talents, and neither of them crawls over the 10-start bar in aggregate. One defence-minded player who’s just been shipped to the 2nd tier with a not-so-heavy heart after dropping to 4/5th place in the centre back pecking order, and another defence-minded player who’s almost universally not rated too highly by his club’s own fans. Only the leader himself ticks all the boxes: Ange N’Guessan took the league by storm, chipping in at both ends by contributing to 3 goals scored and getting tagged for participating on tangible danger just 15 times (whereas he prevented danger from materializing on 26 other occasions). An uber-dependable centre half, N’Guessan never received a lower mark than 5 from Deník Sport writers, and even that only happened 3x across the 16 full appearances.

As for the rest of the Top 5 who are staying put, they all have a calling card: Marek Icha comes through at the right times, behind just over 6 EPAExpected Points Added (EPA) estimate the value of one's goals and assists based on game state (late game winners = top). through his goal contributions, Raimonds Krollis bagged all of his 5 goals in close game states, delivering a similar net value, and Ermin Mahmić — on the contrary — doesn’t notch G+A in high-stake situations, but he shares the team lead in points with Krollis (7) and he would’ve registered more had his teammates capitalized on some of his 18 chance-creating actions (half of them primary).

The Wild Card

I would definitely stop short of calling Michal Hlavatý a bottleneck, but if his departure (which wasn’t cheap) means fully unleashing Vojtěch Stránský, it’s most likely a worthy trade-off. Slovan have already reaped the early fruits, of course, by seeing Stránský contribute to a trio of goals in the first game Hlavatý sat out in its entirety, before going on to add three more in the subsequent Karviná hammering (6:0). Those were his first and last goal contributions since the opener, but Stránský has mostly remained a valuable secondary chance creator throughout, skillfully facilitating play from deep. He’ll grow further.

The Shake-Up

Most fans were stunned to see Dominik Plechatý go before the summer hits, and there is a certain risk attached especially for the early rounds, but both Augustin Drakpe (b. 2001) and Haris Berbić (b. 2006) are younger and most definitely carry a higher upside in the longrun. Berbić is tall and rather fast; Drakpe is smaller but somehow even stronger physically. With both of them lacking a bit positioning-wise, they should make for fine partners to N’Guessan.

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