Also available in Čeština (Czech)

For two years under Miroslav Koubek, Plzeň made for a surprise continental (Top 4) contender and a fun domestic pretender. Then, as 25/26 started to shape up like yet another campaign of high-octane victories and frustrating losses setting up a 15+ point gap on the title-winners, the club decided to pivot. Enough was enough; it was time to start building for future, without really stopping to live in the moment like Koubek’s Viktoria always appeared to do. Having launched a daring retool on the fly, Plzeň are entering 2026 with seemingly nothing and yet everything at stake, both at the same time.

The Outlook

In 2022, following their shocking title run, Plzeň were fancied for 66.5 regular-season points, then asked for even more at Christmas (68.9), only to eventually let the model down (57). This past summer, the model entered the same river for the second time, projecting Viktoria to crawl over the 60-point bar once again — only to burn itself even sooner this time around. Spare for the otherworldly collapse of Baník, Plzeň are the model’s biggest disappointment of the fall, seeing four projected wins wiped off their summer forecast after somehow dropping the ball in three of the easiest fixtures on the schedule without so much as scoring once (0:3 Slovácko and 0:2 Dukla both away; 0:1 Zlín at home). No real gains — just a series of upsets.

The worst part of all this: of the 8 games against the current bottom four, Plzeň are arguably awaiting the toughest one (Baník away). From the 7 in the past, Viktoria only managed to complete a double over Boleslav, failing twice vs Slovácko. That’s why Plzeň’s remaining schedule actually grades out as the third most difficult here: there aren’t many headaches (no Jablonec, with both Liberec and Sparta coming to Doosan Arena), but also no real freebies.

Peak Gain: Boleslav 5:0 (away)
Peak Loss: Slovácko 0:3 (away)

Toughest Assignments Left: Slavia (A), Sparta (H)
Softest Assignments Left: Bohemians (H), Pardubice (H)

The Big Question
Can Hyský be the cure for a mistake-prone backline?

It would be crazy to think of Martin Hyský as a defence-first coach, yet fixing Plzeň’s defensive performance was at the top of his list of immediate priorities after taking over from Marek Bakoš, and he has actually done alright under the circumstances. Over the initial 11 rounds, Viktoria averaged only the 10th best xGAExpected Goals Against (xGA) estimates how many goals a team should have conceded based on shot quality, location, and context. (1.13), whereas accounting for the eight games since, they are up to 4th (0.99). Not a transcending shift, but certainly a start. Under Hyský, moreover, FCVP have been much better in cutting off passing lanes where it matters, on average allowing roughly two deep completed passes per game fewer, which is partly courtesy of improved ball-winning ability (and willingness) in mid-to-low areas of the pitch.

One particular aspect that might be a bit difficult for Hyský in particular to clean up: costly defensive lapses. As you can remind yourself by reading the What went wrong section of my 25/26 preview, Plzeň famously led the league in seeing 37% of their leaked goals preceded by a glaring fuck-up (13). It’s not been that bad this term, but it’s still been a problem (6 obvious mistakes tarnishing 23% of all goals conceded), and Hyský might actually be better suited to compounding it rather than doing the desired opposite. Seeing that four most recent goal-allowing errors by Plzeň players were a product of broken build-up, gifting Slavia and Slovácko their game-winners, the very fact a league-high 22.5% of all shots against Hyský’s Karviná were preceded by a loss of possession categorized by Wyscout as “via pass”, while the opponents benefitted from 2.8 such opportunities a game, can’t be calming any nerves.

That’s why I welcomed the Hyský news with this tweet. And it’s also why — along with Jedlička’s horrendous rebound control costing the team thrice — three sides have already managed to put 3+ goals past Plzeň’s goalkeepers since the cherished coach took charge.

The X-Factor
Red-hot attacking set pieces since the coaching change

It’s entirely possible Hyský’s teams will, at the conclusion of 25/26, make for the most prolific set piece takers in the league. He had managed to oversee 5 such goals while at Karviná (with Marek Jarolím immediately sourcing one goal from a non-penalty set piece in each of his first three appearances on the bench), and Hyský instantly delivered the goods at Štruncovy sady, too, with Plzeň notching a marvelous 6 set-piece goals in the last six games of 2025.

This sort of a statistical tidbit has roughly three interesting dimensions. Firstly, Plzeň also conceded four set-piece goals over the same span, so a whole lot of value was given right back by Hyský’s outfit. Secondly, this recent outburst was preceded by a 12-game goal drought dating all the way back to Tomáš Ladra’s promising debut on the duty. And finally, even through that outburst, Viktoria have maintained a shockingly marginal share of set-piece xGFExpected Goals For (xGF) estimates how many goals a team should have scored based on shot quality, location, and context., sourcing a league-low 17.4% of all non-penalty xGF from corners and free kicks.

Four Sparta players would top the leaderboard below, and as many as six Slavia players —including Mojmír Chytil — would as well. That’s damning. In a way, Plzeň now find themselves in a similar situation Sparta did last winter: their leaderboard was also led by three brilliantly talented players whose appearances amounted to only a few 90-minute shifts. It was even more extreme with Haraslín, Rrahmani and Birmančević who all didn’t meet the 10-game threshold, but look at the Top 4 below. It’s quite amazing Matěj Vydra, Prince Adu and Rafiu Durosinmi put together 19 goals in a fairly limited sample, but it’s also not great for FCVP they were that limited in the first place — the team, no doubt, needed them more often.

Adu leads the way as a rare creative force that also happens to form the league’s Top 4 as far as value sourced from goals scored goes. Tomáš Ladra is up there through the means of accumulation, actually taking a worrying step back when it comes to danger creation (his 5 assists were invaluable; his 5 primary chance-creating actions are joint-6th on team). Cheick Souaré, on the other hand, has managed 7 important goal contributions (10 in total) in about 1000 mins. Vydra and Václav Jemelka both sit on a disappointing trio of TotW shortlist appearances, but they both had notable highlight-reel moments against Sparta, Jablonec or Liberec. Generally, it’s curious to note Plzeň players have only fetched a combined 46 team of the week nominations, which is just one more than Olomouc and less than Hradec — with Ladra, of all people, easily leading the team with 8 (runner-up Lukáš Červ, also odd, is on 5).

The Wild Card

Here’s the biggest shocker of all: despite taking part in all his team’s games, notching 4 vital assists (10 goal contributions all told) and twice getting picked by Deník Sport’s writers as their man of the match, Amar Memić was only up for the official Chance Liga team of the week once. Were he on par with Červ’s 5 votes, Memić would jump ahead of Jemelka.

The Shake-Up

Not often does a Top 4 team ditch their goalkeeper no. 1 halfway through the season, more so sending him on loan to a fellow top flight club, but Viktoria absolutely made the right call with Martin Jedlička. Per my MVP model, 20 goalkeepers have enjoyed a better campaign so far, despite there only being *checks notes* 16 clubs. This is mostly down to Jedlička outright causing 5 conceded goals plus another one through committing a reckless penalty foul, while merely coming out of his way to prevent danger four times. Coupled with 2.8 goals allowed above expectations, it’s easy to see the reasoning behind making the Florian Wiegele bet.

Enjoyed the text or the visuals, but don’t care for 🇨🇿 translations and dashboards? No worries, you can still support us by inviting us for a symbolic pint at the old BuyMeACoffeeBeer page.