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In a way, history repeats itself — almost OCD-like in its precision. Just like last year, Slavia have a very good league autumn behind them which saw their title chances increased from ridiculous heights to nearly 100%. Just like last year, they also celebrated the calendar flip with a brutal pair of results on the continental scene — only now they didn’t suddenly tank their prospects of advancing, since they were competing a level higher. Just like last year, they own a 7-point lead at the top — only this time, it’s Sparta doing the chasing instead of Plzeň. That alone makes Slavia’s pole position a tad more fragile. But only really a tad.

The Outlook

Sparta, you may remember, were stuck in a ditch this time last year. At Christmas, there was already a 13-point gap between the two Prague arch rivals, with Sparta defending the title only in theory. At the same time, Plzeň quite logically weren’t trusted, and so Slavia’s autumn record of 16-2-1 was projected to swiftly turn into a 24-4-2 record; a 75-point regular season.

This January, Slavia reach the 75-point bar in less than 15% of all simulations, having posted an unbeaten fall but still dropped the ball on more occasions than in 2024; twice as many, in fact. They should be good for 21 victories inside the 30 rounds; a year on from earning 25.

In this light, Slavia have underwhelmed. You can almost rule out the repeat of a 78-point regular season, which would require the Trpišovský-led side to win all of their remaining games. Another 90-point season, thus, becomes nigh impossible to replicate. That being said, 24/25 was the strongest performance anyone has produced in the analytics era and the first 90-point campaign ever, so maybe it wouldn’t be realistic/reasonable to expect it again. Also, if there was ever a fully winnable schedule, it’s probably this one. As opposed to last spring, Plzeň and Sparta are coming to Slavia and not the other way round, with two more tough trips (Liberec, Olomouc) already in their rear-view mirror, too. The finish could get tricky with Slavia set to visit Hradec and Ostrava, but by then, the title race may already be over.

Peak Gain: Plzeň 5:3 (away)
Peak Loss: Zlín 0:0 (home) / Hradec 2:2 (home)

Toughest Assignments Left: Sparta (H), Plzeň (H)
Softest Assignments Left: Boleslav (H), Dukla (A)

The Big Question
Do Slavia have an emerging trouble in defence?

Let’s set aside the fact David Zima is basically the last centre back standing at this point in time, and rather circle back to the last 6 games on the 2025 schedule which saw Slavia receiving support from the returning absentees Tomáš Holeš and (partially) Igoh Ogbu, and knocking the sequence out of the park results-wise (all wins, including Plzeň and Jablonec).

The 2025 finish also had them concede three goals in those two most demanding tests, and generally post some concerning underlying numbers across the board in a stretch heavy on home stands (4). Let’s compare the notable averages inside the first 13, and the last 6 rounds:

Non-penalty set piece xGAExpected Goals Against (xGA) estimates how many goals a team should have conceded based on shot quality, location, and context.: 0.16 through R13 — 0.32 between R14-19
Positional attack xGA: 0.23 through R13 — 0.56 between R14-19
Open-play penalty area entries prevented: 57.3% through R13 — 44.0% between R14-19
Touches in the box allowed: 9.92 through R13 — 16.5 between R14-19
Deep completed passes/crosses allowed: 7.31 through R13 — 11.33 between R14-19

Now, six games normally do not constitute a sample worth panicking about, but in the case of Slavia, it’s at least worth taking note. We had grown accustomed to their consistent defensive excellence that reached some historic heights in 24/25, as elaborated in my What went right section, so it’s natural some alarm bells start ringing when that excellence suddenly gives way to rates that would rank somewhere from 6th to 11th place in most cases.

Tomáš Vlček gradually stepping away in favour of Tomáš Holeš — and the very same stretch that raised a fair few doubts — could make for a curious subplot to follow in 2026 as well.

The X-Factor
Deadly counters making for a consistent goal supply

Trpišovský’s teams have enjoyed a strong reputation of willingly pressing up high, and pouncing on loose balls deeper down to lead deadly counter-attacks. In 22/23, for example, they produced 11 goals off counters, and 6 more off forced turnovers in the final third; no team was more prolific than that, with only Gning-powered Teplice keeping up. This sort of an appetite, and especially the efficiency of it all, has waned in the most recent years. With Slavia leaning more into crosses, their counter/turnover goal total dropped to 6 in 23/24, followed by solid improvement to 12 in the most recent campaign. Only this season, however, seems to mark a true return of a ruthless pressing giant, with the centre backs pushing high up being the newfound key that helped to beat Ostrava, Plzeň and Jablonec since October.

Especially if/once Vasil Kušej — who alone has participated on 7 goals of such nature since coming over a year ago — rediscovers his attacking mojo, this specialty of 25/26 Slavia will only grow stronger, and that should be a properly scary prospect for everyone around.

As of today, the Eden side already sits on 5 goals scored off counters, and 5 more bagged off high turnovers. They easily lead the league in xGFExpected Goals For (xGF) estimates how many goals a team should have scored based on shot quality, location, and context. generated off counter-attacks (0.13 per game), owning the largest xG share accounting for counters only (by almost a 10% margin). With the 16 games still left to play, they may as well take down their great 22/23 totals.

For the past 2.5 years, Lukáš Provod has remained the top Slavia candidate to take the MVP crown home. In 23/24, he ended up finishing 8th well behind Sparta’s frontrunners. In 24/25, he was right up there but ultimately couldn’t match Pavel Šulc’s unrivalled production. And finally this year… this one could be his. Provod is already on 16 goal contributions, missing a mere eight to equal his 24/25 total, and that’s without any of his nine dangerous set piece deliveries leading to a goal. He’s the biggest reason why Slavia ultimately blossomed offensively towards the end of 2025, chipping in to 8 goals in the last 5, bringing home 5 EPAExpected Points Added (EPA) estimate the value of one's goals and assists based on game state (late game winners = top)..

While not exactly starting slow himself, Provod registered a magnificent rival in his own dressing room for the first 10 rounds. That was when Vasil Kušej contributed to 11 goals, or in other words, delivered 85% of all his goal contributions. Even more starkly, the initial 10 rounds brought 31 of Kušej’s 33 chance-creating actions (93%). It seemed like forever, because the stretch included three disappointing draws, but Kušej was eventually benched after looking like a shell of himself for exactly those three games only — made a scapegoat.

As long as Kušej’s position looks weak, the spot of Provod’s foremost challenger is up for grabs specifically for three men (with Mojmír Chytil lurking right behind). Tomáš Chorý has managed to catch up beautifully after his 6-game suspension, notching six valuable strikes and bringing the most value to the table through all his goal contributions (9.8 EPA). David Zima and Štěpán Chaloupek are sometimes indistinguishable from the last row, and they both have their merits. Zima is a splendidly positive defensive force, while Chaloupek has been something of an attack-minded revelation, chipping in to 7 goals as a daring centre half.

The Wild Card

As long as his health holds up, Tomáš Holeš will always carry considerable potential to rise up the MVP leaderboard. He typically picks up a high mark from Deník Sport writers (average of 6.2), has already garnered second-most TotW shortlist appearances on team (5), and with the greater platform to attack given to Slavia centre backs this season, he’ll always be able to sell his high-end cross and timing of his under/overlapping runs forward. In just over 11 starts, he’s stood behind 10 wasted opportunities, two goals scored — and he’s got more to give.

The Shake-Up

Remember the dip in positional defending Slavia suffered in the last five rounds of 2025? Above all else, they were crushed down their left-hand side, allowing an average of 0.31 xGA over the stretch. Slavia, of course, have long known they had a problem at left wing-back, and have tried to fix it in almost the only way they seem to know these days: by bringing back an old favourite. Nobody can quite be sure what level David Jurásek is currently playing on, but as opposed to helping the Czechs qualify for the next World Cup, providing a clear upgrade on Slavia’s existing options should be a piece of cake for the club’s MVP of 22/23.

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