Also available in Čeština (Czech)

It’s hard to think of a club in recent memory that would sit 7 points off the direct relegation spot, like Pardubice do now, yet still head into the spring in such high spirits as the Eastern Bohemian organization — armed with a new sporting director transitioning from the same role at a freaking Slavia (much recommend Jiří Bílek’s refreshing interview for Liga Naruby, btw), who’s in sync with the new-ish head coach Jan Trousil, his former teammate from lower tiers, and supported by a rich owner. For now, I’ll stop short of calling FK Pardubice an emerging mid-table staple, but they could very well be on the way.

The Outlook

In the blink of an eye, Pardubice went from recording their biggest 25/26 upsets at home against Karviná and Boleslav (huh) to registering three in a row that either equal them in the eyes of the model (Hradec in the home derby) or easily beat them in terms of unfavourable matchups (Sparta and Ostrava, both away). If there is a cliché that you always want to finish the calendar year on a high, Pardubice have just become its dictionary definition. On 28 November, the team was roughly two points below the total the model envisaged for them at the time; now they are more than 5 points better off, with their schedule between first and last spring game looking quite navigable. Avoiding the relegation play-off, which they do in 83.4% of simulations, must be the realistic aim now, with the relegation odds lower than even halfway through Kováč’s only complete season in charge of the club (13% in January 2024).

Peak Gain: Ostrava 4:1 (away) / Sparta 4:2 (away)
Peak Loss: Liberec 0:4 (home)

Toughest Assignments Left: Slavia (H), Plzeň (A), Jablonec (H)
Softest Assignments Left: Dukla (A), Zlín (H)

The Big Question
Can someone finally fix the defensive set pieces, please?

Jan Trousil has definitely changed Pardubice for the better. His side was noticeably keener on winning the ball up high, turning an average of 4.8 balls recovered in the final third via positioning into 6.6 (which would now rank 6th), and specifically surprising Sparta that way, even banking their lone two goals off counters on the season. His team also had better structure in the middle third, applying more organic pressure on the ball. And it went, above all, from pacing for 19 regular-season points after 11 rounds spent with David Střihavka or Jiří Krejčí to pacing for 52.5 points despite facing Olomouc, Liberec and Sparta. While obviously not sustainable (Pardubice would’ve deserved to earn closer to 9 points instead of the actual 14 per xPExpected Points (xP) measure a team's likely point gain from a particular game; not only based on sum xGF and xGA, but also based on distribution of shots (ie. five 0.01 xG shots won't give you the same chance for a win as one 0.05 xG shot). since Round 12), this is something nobody’s taking away from Trousil.

It’s also something that potentially gives him some space and peace to work on an Achilles heel that’s been attached to Pardubice seemingly going all the way back to the Achilles era — defensive set pieces. Even before conceding 15 goals from non-penalty set pieces in 24/25, which would’ve placed them dead last had it not been for the utterly clueless Dynamo (21), Pardubice afforded the opponents a league-worst 2.7 shots off corner kicks per game in both 23/24 and 22/23, like they were handing out candy. Such a breathtaking average is no longer Pardubice’s trouble (they are down to 1.7 in 25/26), though as far as tangible danger goes, the shortcomings persist. Pardubice have shipped 7 corner kicks goals, and 4 more following throw-ins or (in)direct free kicks, which already gives them a three-goal headstart on the other leaky outfits like Slovácko or Dukla. Even in terms of wasted opportunities, Pardubice allow 1.17 of them per game; the second highest rate. In xGAExpected Goals Against (xGA) estimates how many goals a team should have conceded based on shot quality, location, and context. terms, FKP are on par with the 16th Slovácko (0.39/90), and accounting only for the 8-game Trousil era, they’re last (0.44).

Jiří Bílek was right to note Pardubice have notched a fantastic amount of goals since their latest coaching appointment (1.75 per game; more than Sparta or Jablonec over the same stretch), but their defensive record has yet to improve, and set pieces — source of 32.2% of the team’s non-penalty xGA (the highest proportion in the league) — have a lot to do with it.

The X-Factor
Mandous’ form behind a steadier defence

One cannot be completely sure Aleš Mandous will enjoy a particularly long leesh at Pardubice, or even start the spring opener. After all, he was Boleslav’s de facto starter for two longer 25/26 stretches and dropped the ball on both counts. Besides, he’s at the age where a steep decline of no return is a distinct possibility. It’s been nearly four years since I was almost ready to anoint Mandous as Slavia’s MVP, and it frankly feels like a whole eternity.

Still, I refuse to label the 33-year-old “washed” as yet, and I’m fascinated to see what lies ahead for him here. First of all, he might be in for a substantially easier job. At Mladá Boleslav, there were about 2 more corner kicks to deal with per game (which he hates), and a lot more shots to deal with, too. He’d faced an average of 5.6 projectiles per 90 mins so far this season, whereas Pardubice have been able to slash their initial average of 4.9 shots on target to a much more palatable 3.75 under Trousil’s tutelage. This should play in Mandous’ favour.

What also should, in a way, is who precedes him. Pardubice have sorted through three different goalkeepers and none of them impressed. Stejskal outright bombed in the early goings, Šerák ended up plummeting as low as 5.9 goals conceded above expectation, and Kharatishvili didn’t quite steal the show in the limited sample he was granted (which is what he likely needed to do to stick as the number 1). In the end, Pardubice have been let down by their custodians far more than the second most disappointed outfit — curiously Mandous’ former employer. Pardubice goalkeepers allow nearly half a goal above expectation per game; Mandous’ average currently stands at minus-0.7 prevented goals. Can the two scarred sides help each other out, or is the more natural-seeming outcome — a disaster — on the cards?

After years of carrying a bloated squad and not knowing who to rely on, Pardubice now have a well-defined core of contributors who are also hidden enough they all seem to be staying on beyond January (AKA the smaller club’s sweet spot) with the significant addition of Michal Hlavatý, former Pardubice MVP frontrunner, to the mix. It’s also a combination of roles — a forward, a winger/attacking midfielder, centre backs, a fullback — which is plain nice to see.

Nevertheless, Abdullahi Tanko leads the way as one of the most valuable point-getters out there (see the table below), but Vojtěch Patrák is not far behind with 6 strikes to his name (and no other important goal contribution) that have fetched nearly as many expected points. Ryan Mahuta might not have many important Gs or As, but he’s still chipped in to 6 goals himself, providing consistent powerful presence on the left spare for his longer suspension. Finally, Simon Bammens and Louis Lurvink, closely followed by another defender Mikuláš Konečný (my personal favourite just three points off the latter), are felt at both ends of the pitch, with the Belgian leading the team’s way in official TotW shortlist appearances (7).

The Wild Card

Maybe he doesn’t mesh well with Hlavatý, and thus it’s actually a real possibility he opens the spring as a sub, but it’d be a shame if Pardubice discarded the man who powered them through the closing stages of 2025. Samuel Šimek was legitimately one of the better midfielders in Chance Liga from October through December, finally blossoming at this level at 23. He wasn’t too involved in goals (4), but it wasn’t for a lack of trying, with his supreme set piece delivery leading to a total of 10 wasted chances (joint third-most in the league).

The Shake-Up

Pardubice already shook the roster at the very end of the previous transfer window, making 7 deadline additions (of which 3 are done), and I like the way they’ve gone about applying the finishing touches throughout winter. Hlavatý is obviously the catch, but if Trousil is indeed setting himself up for deploying a 3-at-the-back formation, then I feel like the addition of a left-footed centre back in Jiří Hamza could be a homerun. He was clearly under-appreciated at Slovácko, showing potential on the ball, and Pardubice swiftly took advantage. Well done.

Enjoyed the text or the visuals, but don’t care for 🇨🇿 translations and dashboards? No worries, you can still support us by inviting us for a symbolic pint at the old BuyMeACoffeeBeer page.