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There’s a fine line to be tread between ambition and arrogance. It becomes an even more delicate balance to strike when you set out to plant ambition in a place where it had long been a foreign concept — and more so still if you do it with a vision to change not only that particular place but, ultimately and by extension, the entire Czech footballing landscape. How clubs outside the current Top 4 now think about the way they operate and deal with issues like financial sustainability has inevitably been shaped by what Ondřej Kania & co. have done in Liberec since early 2024. And whatever your stance on their individual decisions, this broader influence is undeniable — and hugely significant in the long run.

Believe me, I’ve found myself conflicted too. Placing some extra, fan-oriented content that takes more effort and resources behind a paywall? Totally fine. Giving it a side-spin of a swipe against biased journalists, basically admitting you have rushed the whole project through because of a few misinforming articles? A bit of an own goal, but I do get the sentiment. Sealing yourself off from all mainstream media while sending people to laid back podcasts? Legitimately unacceptable. While I don’t doubt fans are often more unforgiving in their questioning of the board’s and coaching decisions, like Libor argued in this great Livesport Daily episode, this is not about criticism. Mainstream media have become a gateway to information for a reason, and deliberately bypassing them doesn’t just cut out the uneasy noise — it cuts out accountability. You don’t have to love the way certain outlets operate to recognize their role in maintaining a transparent, balanced ecosystem for everyone. If your answer to slanted reporting is to retreat into carefully curated echo chambers, then you’re not building trust — you’re managing perception. Not the way to go.

What’s perhaps even more enraging is that this whole drama surrounding it has done Slovan+ a huge disservice. What could’ve been seen as a ground-breaking platform for fans— with an explicit aim to lure more people to the stands, the first of its kind in this country and a spiritual follow-up to Sparta Unlimited (which is obviously no fair comparison for a regional club like Liberec, steadily losing once-faithful supporters) — instead began as a somewhat vengeful, inherently personal project. In other words, what was supposed to be purely Slovan’s business was a national point of contention from day one. Not the way to start.

As a result, many of the good things have been clouded by this, erm, act of clouded judgment.

For a platform whose content is mostly created by one person, Tomáš Čarnogurský, combining two other roles that would ideally be done full-time (Supporter Liaison Officer, Press Officer), the service provided (to season ticket holders for no extra cost) is nothing short of stunning. It’s got its limits in visual quality and technical delivery, naturally, but the scope — ranging from commented pre-season games and behind-the-scene videos to Opta advanced data presentation — is amazing. There are a surprising amount of nuggets — like parents of academy kids having free access to game repository through Slovan+ — that seem like a genuinely nice touch, potentially establishing a blueprint to be followed by others.

What Slovan+ has also done is bringing Radoslav Kováč, something of a divisive coaching figure still, closer to fans — e.g. through his raw, emotional speech following the devastating spring opener (a narrow loss to Baník after an 85-minute man disadvantage) — and so when I collected and averaged marks handed out by 12 consulted fans, the first-year version of a new Slovan landed on a B-minus. That is honestly much better than I expected.

It is, in equal parts, down to fans mostly recognizing that on-field progress was always going to be somewhat slow after such a complete tear down, and especially appreciating the off-field jump even outside of Slovan+. New technology to deal with the infamous grass quality has been put in place. A new catering firm has been procured to finally set an adequate bar. Physiotherapy and gym facilities have received touch ups. Longterm plans for a new training centre or even making use of the rock wall behind the main stand have been announced.

Simply no stone left unturned, if you know what I mean.

Fine, the new anthem didn’t quite hit, but you can never realistically aim for full marks with this sort of a thing, and to be fair, Slovan had set a high bar for themselves with the L.B.C hit.

Looking back on 2024/25

What went (particularly) right

In January, Liberec seemed to make for the dreaded “analytics darling”, appearing to be a Top 5 outift per some important underlying numbers like non-penalty xG share, penalty area entry share or shot share. They were just as good at home as they were on the road — also Top 5 quality per my set of metrics. The full-season team card doesn’t paint a dramatically different picture, with Liberec effectively taking a step or two back to 6th/7th place in most places; still a solid balance sheet for a bunch of players who are at most beginning their peak per CIES Football Observatory data (more than three quarters of all minutes going to U-25s!).

The reason behind Liberec keeping it up, or even earning higher grades for maturity as the season progressed, can be tracked to Kováč’s dose of pragmatism, manifested above all in the switch to a back four (which probably took a bit too long) that quickly gave way to six clean sheets in seven games. Funnily enough, the five-game streak — falling just seven minutes short of being the longest one since the last title (2012) — saw opponents outshoot Slovan by 18 attempts, yet misfire so badly in the process that Liberec actually recorded 16 more shots on target. Pure luck? Considering Liberec were five points short of their xP tally by Christmas, now suddenly found catching up by 6 extra points across a mere quartet of victories, let’s just call it what it really was: the Great xG God Reckoning in full swing.

What went (especially) wrong

Why invent the wheel when you can just update a passage from your mid-season review, eh?

“The peculiar habit of looking like convinced world beaters one day — winning by at least two goals on ten separate matchdays — only to let everyone forget about it the next day — with all but two of those triumphs followed by spirit-tanking results: four goalless performances (including The Derby™), two low-scoring draws with bottom three sides (Pardubice, České Budějovice) and two signature gut punches in the first and last home stands of the regular season, with the latter — Top 6 spot on the line — setting up a 7-goal back-to-back stinker.”

Holy fucking shit.

When you type it all out like this, you can really appreciate how much growing this team has got to do, how much catering to fans Kováč has got to do himself. And that’s even before getting into some concerning long-term trends like crashing out of the domestic cup early with a third-tier opposition or beginning too many games automatically down one goal.

Most valuable player (still on board)

Per my MVP model (traditional stats): Michal Hlavatý (ranked 33rd league-wide)
Per my positional models (advanced stats): Šimon Gabriel (97th overall percentile at CB)
Per Statsbomb’s On-Ball Value (OBV) metric: Michal Hlavatý

I try to avoid splitting the MVP honours between two candidates as far as I can, but Liberec gives me no other choice. Or, to be specific, Michal Hlavatý does. I called him a runaway MVP midway through the season, citing his point production (8), wasted chance creation (32) or highlight-reel performances against Slavia (R3) and Plzeň (R7). To this day, we are talking about a player who’s still comfortably seated atop the team’s MVP leaderboard, but the limping towards the finish line was too pronounced for me to ignore. There’s a lot of but’s: Hlavatý does lead the team in Team of the Week shortlist appearances, but beyond R21, he didn’t get recognized even once. He does lead the team in chance creation, but not from open play where Denis Višinský narrowly edged him just like he did in point production. In terms of goal contributions, Hlavatý is actually joint-second with Ahmad Ghali, having collected just two direct and no indirect ones in the spring. He was the primary creator of wasted opportunities 0.95 times an autumn game, overall contributing to a goal/chance as a creator or finisher over three times per 90 minutes. But after the break, those respective numbers dipped to 0.75 and — crucially — 1.87 (compared to 3.09). So what happened? Was there a lingering injury that quietly limited him? Did fatigue caught up to him after starting every single game until R22? We may never know; but this wasn’t a Hlavatý we know.

This is obviously far from an empty pizza chart, but the devil is in the detail. His goal/chance creation and xA percentile values are down by 10 and 20 points respectively, while less of his passing occurred in/around the box, and after years of being a reliable foul magnet, he suddenly turned into a (far) more frequent culprit. Some of this could be tied to deployment; some of it could be down to Liberec focusing more on defence in the last third of the season. But hardly all of it can be excused by external factors. Hlavatý needs to do better, and he would probably be the first person to admit that — because he knows he can; much like us.

As for the man of the hour that followed Hlavatý’s demise, I’m not sure he can do much better. As far as winter arrivals go, Šimon Gabriel is up there with the smoothest cases of integration. In his second full start, he was up for TotW; by the time his 10th start rolled in, he was already a six-time nominee. There were the spotless defensive efforts against Bohemians (R23) or in the Jablonec derby. There were some decent passes and runs forward that didn’t make him a drag on the ball either. There were also some small myths; like crediting him with an improved aerial performance of the whole team in the spring, when Gabriel won just 9 out of 22 aerial duels in his own box. But when it was more about picking the right spot than outmuscling a man, Gabriel was probably the most reliable CB around.

Chip on the shoulder

carried by the player who’s got something to prove — be it to himself, fans or the coach

Until the unfortunate fall that resulted in a fractured collarbone, on 9 November, Marek Icha was on the pitch for 88.5% of all playing time; since the first game of 2025, he was always on hand, yet only called to action for 14.6% of the time. As one of the first signing of the Nezmar/Kováč era, Icha was a fringe player. Now, instead of taking advantage of Qëndrim Zyba’s longer lay-off and fighting to reclaim his spot alongside Hlavatý and/or the high-profile arrival Vojtěch Stránský, he’s spending the summer travelling across the backline, covering for the vacationing Josef Koželuh at right back or even filling in at centre back.

There’s no talk about him potentially leaving, which makes sense since his pricetag was quite steep only a year ago. Yet it’d be hard to confidently say there is a clear pathway back into the starting XI for him; all the while it’d be equally hard to make a case for Liberec’s midfield being better off without him. If I touched upon Hlavatý’s deteriorating attacking output earlier, it is more than likely connected to Icha’s disappearance as an impactful passer, creator. If I mentioned a strengthened focus on defence in the spring, it is more than likely connected to Icha’s disappearance, too, with the more mobile Varfolomeyev initially stepping in, frequently sweeping up loose balls and applying pressure on the opponent efficiently.

Football is often a game of trade-offs, and this below is one of the best examples of it:

Inside the off-season

special thanks for guiding me through the motions of Slovan Liberec’s off-season go out to Milan Kalla, @kdysiUNisy, @jakub_svoboda, @SlovanOnTop, @FandaZKotle, @SvenViggen, @prochyss39, @33metalliza, @klappe19 & @GuardiolaLBC

Squad turnover

I’d say… pretty much completed? As of now, Liberec are retaining 74% of all 2024/25 minutes, which isn’t too bad and ranks 10th. In case Hugo Jan Bačkovský, Ľubomír Tupta and Benjamin Nyarko still leave the club inside this window, which is commonly expected, that percentage drops to a far more critical 62%. Although “critical”… neither of those three has played any significant role in the spring (let alone a positive one in the case of Nyarko, who doesn’t even warrant a place on the depth chart after a no-show of a pre-season), and of those who did, the club is only losing a pair of contributors, Santiago Eneme and Višinský. Although “only”… their 11 goals could be hard to replace with a flurry of unproven arrivals. Still, this is all kinda sorta part of the plan, since the club had known for a while neither Višinský nor Christian Frýdek, another potential source of points, are extending their stay.

Biggest upgrade

Maybe here’s a positive lesson for Icha: for someone who’d spent the early parts of 24/25 filling in at right wing back, Vojtěch Stranský still managed to carve out one heck of a breakout campaign at a completely different position from that frustrating departure point. Whether he was closer to a ten than an eight, or closer to a six than an eight, it didn’t matter to him — more often than not, Stránský owned the middle of the park regardless of that also being his terciary position coming up through the youth ranks at best. What Stránský now brings to Liberec is a profile that has all the ingredients to form a complete double pivot with Hlavatý, allowing Lukáš Masopust to operate in the role of a free-roaming number 10.

The best thing about Stránský is that he’s a daring passer — one of only four players in the league to reach double digits in completed smart passes; Hlavatý is another one — without being a particularly wasteful one — ranked 7th in meters gained per loss. He’s always cool and collected, almost to a point it annoys you; his feet never stop being active, as a result of which you never catch him off guard. Just watch him for a few minutes — how he corrals the ball, shakes off the opponent and takes three huge strides upfield — and I guarantee you he’ll be your instant favourite. As someone who sits in the 70th percentile or higher for ball progression via passing and dribbles, Stránský is in an exclusive company of Ladra, Rigo, Kohút and Provod; currently all employed by the Top 4. The only thing that truly separates him from Provod, who he resembles the most, is Stránský’s chronic fear of pulling the trigger. He only finished off 0.34 chances per game (far below Hlavatý’s already sub-par 0.54, but on the other hand, pretty much the exact same rate Eneme maintained with 0.36). At the same time, Stránský wrapped up the season with a not-too-shabby 2.1 xG, courtesy of barely ever shooting from the perimeter. Smart boy; and a high-end driving force in the making at 22.

Biggest downgrade

Going by what Kováč recently said, he’s personally higher on Eneme and his versatility, work rate as well as confidence/strength on the ball, which I do appreciate, but I’ve also just waxed lyrical about Stránský who’s got all the tools and potential to make the coach and fans alike forget about Eneme in an instant. So instead, let’s highlight Denis Višinský, whose replacement is far more of an unknown and possibly only happens by committee.

Unlike Hlavatý, Višinský didn’t cool off by any means following the break, chipping in to nearly the same amount of goals and chances in the spring (21) than in the longer autumn (24). More importantly, while gaining the penalty box in possession at the usually high rate, he was an extremely efficient finisher. If you filter out attacking midfielders who were in the top quarter for both high-danger shots and the quality of finish, you are only left with Vlkanova, Višinský and Slončík, funnily enough his new rival at Plzeň. To get into fifteen shooting positions carrying value of at least 0.15 xG in 25 starts like Višinský is super rare.

It wouldn’t be an overstatement to say that in this particular area, enhanced by his near-singular ability to beat a man at the edge of the penalty area, Višinský is one of a kind. It’s up to Slovan to identify adequate sources of compensation so it isn’t felt on the scoresheet.

Need left to be addressed

Doesn’t this feel a tiny bit like a Kulenović déjà vu? In his case, too, Slovan let a solid enough player depart with too brief a pause, only to find themselves scrambling for a replacement for days, weeks, months on end before Raimonds Krollis finally started to resemble him in, say, February or March? Slovan are not quite that deep into their search for a left-sided (preferably also left-footed) centre back after they didn’t mind losing Marios Pourzitidis too much, but it’s taken an awful lot of time already. Between Pourzitidis’ and Halinský’s departure, and Jan Knapík’s and Martin Rýzek’s longterm injuries, Liberec are being asked to stomach a collective loss of depth that’s hard to even begin to fathom, let alone fully absorb.

Sure, the defence had coped just fine in terms of conceded goals earlier this year, but that ignores the fact it also posted a slightly higher average xGAExpected Goals Against (xGA) estimates how many goals a team should have conceded based on shot quality, location, and context. (1.07 vs 1.00) despite not having to face Slavia at all. Not keen on using xGA as a proxy? Fair enough, let’s leave Slavia out of the sample altogether and try chances allowed — the autumn version was still a bit more solid (5.6 per game) than the spring one (6.5). Neither this nor that is the be-all, end-all measure, of course, but it’s pretty plausible all those (lucky) clean sheets and Gabriel’s last-ditch efforts have masked a few shortcomings — like Dominik Plechatý’s awfully-timed jump. His form was definitely improved in a back four compared to the wide CB role, but his decision-making on the ball resulting in a mere two penalty area entries is a head scratcher.

New kid on the block

There are a lot of them, but none homegrown. While this might finally be the season Milan Lexa picks up some more top flight minutes across after a very good loan stint at Varnsdorf, it wouldn’t be a lot behind Masopust and (actually a bit younger) Ermin Mahmić, plus he was featured in this space two years ago anyway. Kenny Ogboi, a fellow 20-year-old, would be a new name — but he didn’t make it to the final camp. Joel Yakubu, who caught the attention for both the reserves and the U-19s last term, is in the same boat. Hynek Hruška, of some intriguing off-the-ball movement but little else, is headed down a level. And so we arrive on Afolabi Soliu, the youngest of the bunch as a late summer 2005 birthday, who may as well be the closest to the starting XI. He was a bit of a late bloomer for Táborsko last season (getting 75% of his opportunity from April onwards), but managed to flash some swagger on both flanks. Besides, you don’t hand out no. 7 to just anyone at Slovan — number formerly worn by Nezmar, Folprecht or Rabušic. Between Soliu and Mahmić — whose sweet technique and set-piece acumen will hopefully outshine the less flattering part of his 24/25 résumé (10 yellows and a red in all comps) — Liberec should be well stocked with breakout candidates.

Looking ahead to 2025/26

Below is the team’s current(ish) depth chart with a maximum of 4 alternatives for one position. The colourful ratings are a static snapshot of the league-wide situation on 5 July, and they are just a playful bit to add flavour to it; the names featured should be relevant to this day. To learn more about my approach to constructing depth charts, with all its limitations, head here.

Primary formation

The pre-season has mostly seen Kováč deploy something of a 4-2-2-2/4-4-2 which he utilized towards the end of his Pardubice stint, but the dress rehearsal saw a return of the classic 4-2-3-1 with Masopust in the hole, and that shall be the primary formation going forward, as well, at least until Knapík is finally healed and puts 3ATB3ATB means 3-at-the-back, ie. any formation with three centre backs and wingbacks, or alternatively, five defenders. back on the table.

Notes on the depth chart

Speaking of breakout candidates: it’ll be fascinating to watch how high on the depth chart Filip Špatenka and Petr Juliš start. Given the latter’s rumoured pricetag and fitness data, I’m expecting a mountain of opportunity. He literally couldn’t do any worse than his past goal total, and the good news for Liberec is that he was actually considerably unlucky. While still an underwhelming finisher (2.37 xG), his shots on target were worth 1.28 xGSExpected Goals Scored (xGS) only takes shots on target into account, including their power and placement on top of xGF. — good for more than a big fat zero. Špatenka is a more interesting case for me, with a Kubala-esque ceiling as a sneaky tight space navigator. His greatest asset besides that is not minding any role across the front three, with some of his best performances coming off either flank.

Of course, a path to regular playing time only goes through Ahmad Ghali for at least one of those pictured above. And that’s not necessarily an easy task to fulfill. Unless he gets poached before the transfer window slams shut (which isn’t outside the realm of possibility), Ghali most likely starts following a decent spring when he significantly boosted his xA value and flashed top notch ability in gaining the zone (unrivalled on his own team in variety).

Finally, if you remember how Boula’s pizza charts looked like back when he was an under-utilized prospect of sorts, you may experience another déjà vu. Solid in aerial duels, and perhaps more so in the ground kind? Tick. Alert, effective defence overall? Tick. (More than) decent ball progression via carries and diagonals? Tick tick tick. It’s all there.

(Including the dangerously small sample, mind.)

Roster battle to follow

If sorting the wingers on the depth chart was hard enough, it didn’t get much easier deeper down. The (safety first-based) Mikula factor looms large on the left, as does the (pedigree-based) Icha factor on the right. But it’s ultimately more about three other players. On the left, Petr Hodouš and Aziz Kayondo are about to battle it out. Hodouš turned some heads on a Dynamo side that had given up long ago, cutting inside, driving forward, pouncing on loose balls (sharp, agile) and especially taking bullet throw-ins that led to four of his team’s 9 goals.

His defensive duel behaviour is almost shockingly suspect for someone who was at Sparta since 14 (he basically defends the ball, not the player), which is why he got absolutely torched (0.37 average xGA allowed down the left channel per game once the calendar flipped), but I’d still have more trust in him than Kayondo. He may be a better defender (75th percentile in defensive duels out wide) but definitely won’t provide you with enough of a punch upfront…

… and that last part is all the more problematic with Koželuh slated to start on the right, because it potentially gives you a symmetry you don’t want. Symmetry in that you deploy 2/3s of the league’s bottom three in terms of expansive (stretch) passing. Koželuh can accelerate the build-up with a clever little run, and does process the game on a high level once inside the final third, but getting there is an issue he won’t help you with. He’s still closer to a defensive specialist than anything else; definitely limited technically.

Season forecast

After bumping Liberec’s chances of playing some more UEFA football up by a considerable 30% last summer (largely courtesy of the extra UEFA slot, to be fair), the model is taking the more cautious route this time around. It still sees Slovan as a 40-point team inside the regular season — something they had actually been once (only just) in the 3 years preceding Kováč’s arrival, it often gets forgotten — but after the 5th highest UEFA odds in 2024, they are now firmly behind Jablonec (17% vs 61%), and still barely ahead of Hradec Králové (16%).

Liberec are obviously playing the long game, but it’s already fair to assume that another Top 6 miss — however close call it might be — will be considered at least a mild failure. To that end, Slovan have actually severely regressed, going from a 56% likelihood to 37%. Ouch.

Bold prediction

The track record: 1/4. Liberec didn’t celebrate exactly 1 victory for every billboard (17)

The prediction: Kováč earns his 50th top flight victory against Jablonec of all teams

The rationale: Last season, I was quite far off with my projection concerning a number of wins Liberec register, so of course I perform much of the same trick this summer, hoping for a better result. Since 17 victories including post-season proved too much (12), I take it down a notch this time around while still demanding progress from the ambitious team. Counting all his stints at Opava, Pardubice and Liberec, Kováč currently sits on 37 victories. Slovan have the two derbies scheduled for Round 13 (ha!) and 27, with the latter being my goal. The spring version of Kováč’s Liberec was on pace for 12.5 wins in 27 games, which fills me up with confidence. It’s also about the timing, though, so here’s hoping Slovan follows up on their first back-to-back winless derby seasons with a proper bang. Kováč will most likely need it.

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