Picking up the baton from FK Mladá Boleslav, FC Zlín are another club technically bankrolled by a billionaire without you ever guessing it. But while Jiří Šimáně has other pressing issues on his hands, Zdeněk Červenka’s lack of visibility and investment is likely by design. Zlín’s transfer market approach isn’t stale like Mladá Boleslav’s; it’s just unashamedly low-cost, in search of a model capable of sustaining top-flight status. So far, so good — and second-year sporting director Pavel Hoftych is only getting started.

It’s commonly assumed FC Zlín is run by Zdeněk Grygera. But ever since being elected to the top of the Czech FA last year, he’s been far less involved in the day-to-day operations, and it has benefited the club enormously. Gone are the days of buying only finished articles, which — given Zlín’s limited pulling power — usually meant ageing players well past their peak. At least partly gone, too, is the club’s heavy reliance on a handful of player agents. Grygera is now more focused on attracting partners and sponsors, stepping in only to finalize transfers, if at all. Squad-building, meanwhile, is almost entirely Hoftych’s domain, with the odd contribution from the coaching staff (like Cupák, coach Červenka’s fav at Kroměříž).

On the transfer front, then, one can report progress. Elsewhere, not so much. Letná remains a disgrace, though the long-stalled completion of the East Stand — now embarrassingly cut in half like some kind of a Football Manager bug — could finally move forward.

At least football is no longer an alien in its own town, historically dominated by ice hockey. There are more billboards and whatnot popping up, with footballers commonly lending their image to local initiatives such as the Zlín Film Festival or the Tomáš Baťa Foundation, which has sadly lost almost its entire collection of Baťa publications. In the year marking the 150th anniversary of Tomáš Baťa’s birth, the fire truly couldn’t have come at a worse time.

Looking back on 2025/26

What went right

It wasn’t necessarily supported by underlying numbers, with Zlín outperforming their expected point output by over 1.6 points on 5 out of the first 10 occasions, but a mere three losses inside the initial 14 rounds basically set ‘Ševci’ up for a comfortable season. Anytime a newcomer makes up the Top 4 at the one-third mark of the season, they are a happy newcomer. They sure wouldn’t be getting too pre-occupied with some expected goals.

At the same time, it’s not like Zlín weren’t capable of some legitimately great stretches at least on the defensive side of things. Their three wins inside the opening four rounds were powered by an average of 0.81 xGAExpected Goals Against (xGA) estimates how many goals a team should have conceded based on shot quality, location, and context., which is fantastic. And when they finally stopped the bleeding with three consecutive clean sheets in R22-24, they were doing so to the tune of an average 0.55 xGA — against two eventual Top 4 members in Hradec and Plzeň, no less.

What went wrong

I don’t need to tell you that consistent threat generation was an issue for Zlín. Away from Letná, they were good for an average xGFExpected Goals For (xGF) estimates how many goals a team should have scored based on shot quality, location, and context. of 0.78 — the worst rate in the league. They entered the opponent’s penalty area from open play a mere 6.51 times per game, also ranking 16th. And on an incredible pair of occasions, they produced 0 shots. I can only recall like two zero-xG performances from anyone in my time, let alone from one team across one year.

There was also something wildly unsustainable on their success; a notable red flag towards 26/27. The opposing goalkeepers ended up allowing a combined 8.7 goals above expected across 35 matches, the second-softest goalkeeping received by anyone, and while they won a solid 11 games, their average expected point total across those was a mere 1.26. For context, Bohemians also celebrated 11x and they were good for 1.63. Way more deserving winners.

Most valuable player

Per my MVP model (traditional stats): Stanislav Dostál (ranked 16th league-wide)
Per my positional models (advanced stats): Stanislav Dostál (68th overall percentile at GK)

This is grim. Stanislav Dostál is probably still the top choice, even though he was nowhere near his own best and wouldn’t even fit inside my Top 8 goalkeepers in the league (I will get to him later). The MVP leaderboard’s runner-up is Michal Fukala whom you, odds are, probably didn’t notice much, and their third-choice would be Jakub Černín who saw two red cards. Their leader in goal contributions (12) and EPAExpected Points Added (EPA) estimate the value of one's goals and assists based on game state (late game winners = top). (7.7) is Tomáš Poznar, who’s among the two worst players at his position in six important metrics, including open-play xTExpected Threat (xT) measures how the player increases the probability of scoring a goal by carrying or passing the ball. or success rate in entering the penalty area where he’s a laughable 1-for-13. Meanwhile, one name that was (deservedly) receiving early MVP buzz on the back of some valuable goals and proactivity off the ball, Michal Cupák, ultimately grades out as the worst AM of all. Yikes, that’s a first.

Look, Cupák is most certainly a better player than this pizza chart communicates. That Zlín’s first choice for the hole, who barely skipped a game, entered the box successfully a mere 15 times is more by design than anything else, though the 34.1% success rate is already more a consequence of Cupák’s lacking execution on a pass and general softness in offensive duels. That Cupák completed a total of 22 passes and crosses in/to the box is also down to opportunity, at least in part. Then again, it’d be downright foolish to expect someone who was a part-time maths and PE teacher earlier in 2025 to arrive like a damn world-beater.

Especially if he gets deployed in the double pivot, like he already sometimes was towards the end of 25/26, Zlín will gladly lean into his defensive work rate and late arrivals to the box.

Chip on the shoulder

When a club signs not one, not two, but three new players for your position, the last thing you want to do is to get injured before the opener. That’s what happened to Jakub Kolář, a long-time servant at Letná whom I seriously considered for the previous section. You see, Kolář was on the pitch for a total of 19.2 starts (without added time), and in that space Zlín conceded an average of 1.15 goals. Without him holding the defence together, it was one extra goal. Indeed, it was no coincidence that when he went down with an injury in R24, Zlín immediately proceeded to ship a whopping 16 goals in just 5 following games without him.

As a pure defender of the box, the spatially aware Kolář had no deputy at Zlín and only five regular centre backs in the league outdid him in that particular group of metrics. His closest comparable wearing the yellow-blue colours, meanwhile, was Jakub Černín (ranked 25th), whose ranking in the “consistency & dependability” category (62nd out of 67), however, represents too wild a trade-off to stomach. Regardless, due to his superior aerial prowess and imposing figure generally, Černín is most likely above Kolář in the pecking order. When you squint, the two pizza charts look eerily similar, so it’s really just a matter of one’s taste.

But why chip on the shoulder? Because Ondřej Kukučka is a quality if rusty option and not a long-term project like some other CB signings (Katalinić, Mbatshi), while Joss Didiba could be preferred as a centre half from now on. Even if Antonín Křapka played himself out of the first-team picture (much like long-term injured Jakub Jugas), this tandem above gotta fight.

Inside the off-season

special thanks for guiding me through the motions of FC Zlín’s off-season go out to @praotec_hejt

Squad turnover

Zlín has spent the summer inflating its squad rather than deflating it, and so it’s no surprise the club now stands tall as the most rigid of all, retaining an impressive 91.8% of minutes. Červenka loves a thin core, giving playing time worth at least 20 full starts to a league-leading 9 players — all of which are obviously staying put. The fact that, perhaps save for Cletus Nombil, none of them has generated any interest around the league could be considered concerning, but those days simply look to be gone for this iteration of Zlín.

To be clear, though, the rigidity could, in part, be something of a precaution. This is because ‘Ševci’ are entering the season with the most bloated treatment room. If you took away all those absent on the opening day (Fukala, Didiba, Machalík, Penkevics, Jugas, Petruța, Kolář), Zlín would suddenly bank on a mere 64.5% of all playing time allocated in 25/26, which would walk them into the 13th spot. (Not to mention many of the new faces are hurt, too.)

Biggest upgrade

I am old enough to remember the time when Daniel Šmiga was supposed to be the future of Baník Ostrava, debuting at 17 years old just like Milan Baroš before him, only to promptly commit the biggest crime ever by moving to Prague in under 12 months. The grass wasn’t always greener at Slavia, and so now Šmiga — who counts Jamie Vardy and Harry Kane, two famously similar footballers, among his role models — is attempting to finally make it at 22.

Per Driblab, Šmiga was a bit of a mixed bag for Příbram in ChNL last term. He ranked in the Top 10 among forwards in touches inside the penalty box and successful dribbles, but couldn’t create for teammates consistently (0.04 expected assists or 0.41 open-play key passes both ranked in the bottom 30%) and was especially unable to win offensive headers (measly 20% success rate would make him 3rd-worst in ChL), which is handy at Zlín.

Conversely, winning an aerial duel, sometimes knock the ball down for a colleague, and every now and then surprise with a resolute finish might be the last remaining qualities of Tomáš Poznar. Meanwhile, Stanley Kanu is a speedy counter-attacking weapon who performed the third-least off-ball runs in behind the defence; a combination that just doesn’t make sense.

Biggest downgrade

Jakub Pešek and Jan Kalabiška both make for a good riddance in their own right, and so the only significant departure left is also the biggest downgrade by default: Matěj Koubek. Contrary to his previous years in the league, he actually qualifies for a pizza chart as a winger, but very much delivers a centre forward’s toppings — getting in a fair few high-danger positions and generally driving the net admirably. He’s otherwise mediocre across the board, but could potentially be sorely missed if the powder ever gets dry. (It’s Zlín, so it will.)

Then again, this is obviously a forced “downgrade” tag. Zlín are clearly filling this hole with Frank Appiah, 23-year-old Ghanaian of short stature, who should be capable of bringing a rare injection of creativity. He has shown that both in the pre-season and the opener.

Need left to be addressed

Joss Didiba, something of a modern-day icon entering his 5th season at Letná, really struggled in his 3rd top flight one, and so if Červenka is indeed planning to separate him from Cletus Nombil and move him to the backline, it might be for the best (at least until he inevitably starts struggling there, too). While the tandem may have been comfortably enough for the second tier, it decidedly wasn’t for Chance Liga, with both players just too similar to each other. And whenever they don’t overlap, it’s usually a sign of trouble. For instance, only one DM was fouling more often in the defensive third than Nombil. Didiba was fine in that respect, but only a few of his peers were punished more frequently for their lack of concentration. Even more notably, while Nombil appeared to be a solid ball distributor down a level, he was largely a non-factor here. That’s why most fans wish for a constructive no. 6.

To be fair, Tomáš Hellebrand might provide an internal fix, and he did get a rare start in the opener. But until we see more opportunities dished out his way, Zlín appear too thin at CM.

New kid on the block

If you’re a fan of a good nepo baby story, David Grygera (b. 2005) who only recently signed his first professional contract could soon become your favourite. He’s primarily a right back, just like his dad, but can deputize all across the back line due to his flexible profile that puts athleticism and good ol’ hard work above all else. With a limited attacking contribution, he somewhat reminds @praotec_hejt of Martin Cedidla, which is a compliment in this context.

Otherwise, there’s never a shortage of homegrown talent coming through at the old Vršava, despite the club stubbornly refusing to invest in the increasingly inadequate facilities. What’s kinda new, though, is that the club has recently bought into the idea of bringing in Africans at a tender age, already showcasing Senegalese Moustapha Touré (b. 2007) in the top flight, and maybe soon promoting his peer Malick Gningue who put 4 goals past Slavia’s U-19s in April.

Looking ahead to 2026/27

Below is the team’s current depth chart with a maximum of 4 alternatives for one position. The colourful ratings are a static snapshot of the league-wide situation on 21 July, and they are just a playful bit to add flavour to it; the names featured should be relevant to this day. To learn more about my approach to constructing depth charts, with all its limitations, head here.

Primary formation

With three centre backs arriving to complement four resident centre backs (plus Joss Didiba), one has got to wonder whether a 3ATB3ATB means 3-at-the-back, ie. any formation with three centre backs and wingbacks, or alternatively, five defenders. isn’t in the cards for a coach who has been traditionally a stickler for a 4-2-3-1 or the occasional throwback 4-4-2. Then again, five of those 8 centre back options were sidelined for the opener, so it might not be a hot topic.

Colours I grappled with

I realize that for most Zlín fans, who see Stanislav Dostál as a demi-God, the pale red colour assigned to the goalkeeping crop would feel like a bright red colour to a bull, but there are two things to consider. First of all, Zlín is in contention for having the worst no. 2 and perhaps even the worst no. 3 in the league, which isn’t irrelevant given that the seasoned veteran is now well past his 30th birthday and dropped out with the same injury twice during the spring. Second of all, Dostál only really enjoyed one good stretch (R10-15), otherwise looked quite ordinary if not below average, allowing 5.13 goals above expectation.

Notes on the depth chart

With Cupák deployed a bit deeper in pre-season and to start the campaign, Tom Ulbrich gets pushed into the starter’s role which he most likely isn’t suited for. If entering the box is generally a problem for Zlín’s attack-minded players, it borders on a phobia for Ulbrich. He successfully completed a mere trio of entrances, out of 12 attempts, with his 6 deep completions also ranking very low on the league’s charts. He is tall, which is certainly a compelling attribute for someone often deployed in the hole, but it very much stops at that.

Someone who was on track to be one of the best in terms of cracking the penalty area from open play: Michal Fukala. Sadly, his last minutes came in Round 26 and he was still on the injured list to open this season. His smarts are unrivalled on this Zlín team, which is kind of a problem on its own, but a 70.2% success rate in entering the box would impress anywhere.

One of the first names on the team sheet for Červenka was undoubtedly another fullback, Miloš Kopečný. He’s an interesting case in that he contributed to five goals, including against Plzeň and Jablonec (two!), without registering so much as a single point. Given that he’s a bit of a mindless crosser who doesn’t add much value in the build-up, it nonetheless figures.

Finally, does this look like a strong left-hand side to you? Yeah, the quicker we move on…

Roster battle to follow

I thought the belated introduction of David Machalík to the starting line-up was a pretty inspired move from Červenka, as he brought a small dose of creativity. He’s tiny and wins a ton of fouls through just that, but he can also pick out a pass like only a few players nominally stationed out wide can. In fact, there are exactly 5 of them: Plavšić, Haraslín, Kušej, Šturm, Alégué. Pretty solid company for the regional prodigy who was once considered a big Slovácko prospect. He returned to the top flight after 7 years and flashed a slick left foot.

Stanislav Petruța, potentially rivalling him on the same wing or deployed opposite Machalík, is a very different type of player: less poise, more ADHD. He’s been getting killed in offensive duels undergone in the final third (9 of 31 won), was struggling to get into the box as a result (only cracking it 0.4 times per game and performing 0.32 successful actions in the box), and didn’t contribute to a single goal scored beyond that one hattrick (no wonder given that he generated a sum of 0.29 expected assists), but boy the amount of over/underlaps he makes, the number of successful on-ball pressures or triumphant races for loose balls… marvelous!

Season forecast

After returning to a bullish 10th-place projection last summer, Zlín made the model look smart — earning 34 points (in place of the projected 33.1) and sitting 10th as recently as after Round 27. It makes sense, then, that the model would stay the course and only expect a mild bump by one regular-season win instead of one draw for a 9-7-14 record that copies 25/26.

Just like last year, the 9% likelihood of going down feels a bit too generous, though it must be noted that there was a sizeable 11-point gap between Zlín and the 14th spot after 30 rounds. ‘Ševci’ do sink to the relegation play-off in 22.6% of all simulations, which is not nothing.

Bold prediction

The track record: 0/4. Červenka took more than 16 points from the first 15 rounds

The prediction: Zlín will produce the most impressive comeback of the season

The rationale: In early July, a massive fire ripped through the former Baťa factory complex in Zlín, destroying e.g. around seven months’ worth of production of local footwear company Vasky and causing an estimated CZK 180 million in lost sales. As founder Václav Staněk now attempts to engineer one of the city’s most remarkable comeback stories, FC Zlín will provide some much-needed emotional support by pulling off one of their own — in circumstances considerably less existential, but perhaps with a surprise element to boot.

Indeed, we are not going for just any comeback. Zlín’s sole 25/26 victory after falling behind came in the opener when they turned a 0:1 deficit against Teplice into a 3:1 triumph. Great, but not really what we are looking for. We need a Slovácko derby, or a Top 4 upset. Something — anything — that’s at least in the contention for the biggest 26/27 shock will do.

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