At Pardubice, they learnt to fully appreciate Radoslav Kováč only after he left the post. At Liberec, they may be headed down the same road after modest gains on the pitch and marvellous business off the pitch were officially deemed not enough. Or, judging by the opening Plzeň sweep… perhaps not. After ditching one of the original poster boys of the club’s new era, Slovan certainly didn’t opt for the most conventional replacement, instead seeking a clean break and a fresh direction. Can Branislav Fodrek spark lasting change?

At first sight, the former Slovakia international is clearly a more introverted type. What normally speaks loud for him, however, is a heavy-metal brand of football, full of pressing up high and rapid, more expressive ball circulation. That is exactly what Liberec fans immediately noticed in the first two summer friendlies, along with notably fewer smiles.

In a way, Fodrek comes as well prepared as one could possibly be for this job. DAC’s business model is also built on talent development and constant selling for profit. Much like Kováč, Fodrek was also initially given a vote of confidence for his third season before receiving a call while on vacation that further cooperation was not desired. A “funny” coincidence indeed.

Upstairs, Slovan are doing more than fine on the financial front. The behind-the-scenes documentary came and went, pulling some new partners like UCT, while individual breakouts on the field attracted new sponsors like Slavia. If a Bundesliga club eventually decides to break the bank for Mahmić and deliver an extra 10 mil, Ondřej Kania will do a little dance.

Then again, it’s not like the owner merely plans to sit on the pile of money like Donald Duck. Quite the opposite: there’s the admitted ambition to buy the stadium from the indebted city hall to finally secure “its first proper renovation in (over) 20 years”, and there’s the acute need for a dedicated training centre so that the first team doesn’t have to split their winter preparation between Liberec and Žižkov anymore. The club may be thinking two years ahead in this case, but the new hybrid pitch is a welcome short-term gain. It might even prove essential to delivering the more attractive brand of football most fans are desperately after.

Looking back on 2025/26

What went right

Capped off by his sacking, the belief that Kováč underperformed in his sophomore season in charge of Liberec is now commonly shared among fans and neutrals alike. Let me tell you it is as common as it is objectively wrong. Entering the post-season with the youngest starting XI in the history of both the Championship Group and the club itself (average age of less than 23 years), Slovan were a Top 4 team across the board. In four different types of expected outcomes (non-penalty xG, positional attack xG, set piece xG and expected points); in both shot attempts and shots on goal; both home and away according to a whole group of metrics.

You can try however hard you want, and you’ll never convincingly paint this as any sort of a failure. Whether you believe he was the right man to take the next step with Slovan or not (I am personally not convinced myself that he was, and I’m definitely more in the pro-Kováč camp), Liberec’s first couple of months were legitimately strong. They equalled their biggest win ever (6:0 vs Karviná), produced what looked to be their come-of-age tactical effort against Slavia, and were still one of Europe’s most prolific chance-creating outfits at the end of November. By New Year’s Eve, only Slavia owned a better goal difference (plus-14).

What went wrong

However, by the season’s conclusion, there were glaring signs that Kováč wasn’t ready to take it to the next level. He had made excuses about his young squad so often that, by the time his inexperienced team predictably fell on its face in the post-season (0-0-5 record, 2:9 aggregate score), everyone was freaking tired of buying it. He once again bombed in the domestic cup, effectively slamming one of Liberec’s doors to Europe shut far too early. He never really crushed the narrative that his football was becoming too negative, too hasty, as there were always too many fouls (15.3 per game for the worst rate in the league), and too little actual playing time on offer, not only when facing the usual suspects from Slavia.

Most valuable player

Per my MVP model (traditional stats): Ermin Mahmić (ranked 48th league-wide)
Per my positional models (advanced stats): Šimon Gabriel (80th overall percentile at CB)

It’s extremely disappointing, when you think about it, that the leader in all goal contributions (ie. not only goals and assists, but primary, secondary or tertiary assists, too) on a Top 6 side was Raimonds Krollis with 13. A part of the problem was that he seemingly couldn’t stay available for a single sustained period, picking up three minor injuries and two suspensions. Another explanation would involve something about not being too special in most indicators.

That being said, the Latvian definitely was vital for the team. He was involved — either as a finisher or a creator — in exactly half of all danger (be it goals or wasted opportunities) Slovan generated with him on the pitch. He could be counted on as a pressing trigger, a fighter up front, and a reliable finisher. What Liberec arguably needed above all, though: generally more constant presence in the box, with Krollis not there for many crosses, on average shooting from 16+ meters which is normally not a sign of an out-and-out striker.

Speaking of shooting from too far out: Ermin Mahmić is still technically a Slovan player. He landed a close second in goal contributions (12) and led the team in chance-creating actions (37), but on the other hand, only two of his 10 points were notched in tight game states, while “only” 23 of his danger-creating actions were both from open play and not for himself.

Indeed, from the very beginning of his stint at U Nisy, it felt like Mahmić was here mostly just to win a transfer to a better league. Make no mistake, treating Slovan as a mere stepping stone is a legitimate way of thinking, especially for a foreigner, but when it leads you to try your luck sixty-three times in under 20 full starts, frequently going for a wondergoal from dumb positions, with only eight of those attempts carrying a value of at least 0.15 xG… I’d argue you want it just a little too much. Mahmić flashed a decent cross and some valuable set piece acumen, but him pulling the trigger from 30 meters remains my main memory of him.

Chip on the shoulder

The coaching staff, and possibly even Jan Nezmar himself, typically wants to keep him around for his organization skills. There is something on his long-range passes, too. Yet, despite starting all but two 25/26 games, when asked about the one position they’d wish to upgrade over the rest of the summer, 10 of my 30 consultants exclaimed: goalkeeper no. 1.

Every year, there are a couple zero-percentile players that at least somewhat shock you. Based on reputation, this is definitely it. Based on perception, not so much anymore.

Tomáš Koubek‘s difference-making was genuinely invisible; at least the good kind. He pulled off a mere three high-danger saves for the third-lowest high-danger situation save percentage (10%). Only two other GKs recorded more badly timed punches than well-timed ones. His claim accuracy and judgment of when to rush out of line were also off. He misplaced a whopping 2.2 passes inside his own half per game; Holec was second with 1.6.

Inside the off-season

special thanks for guiding me through the motions of Slovan Liberec’s off-season go out to Em Džej, @Smashka24, @SlovanOnTop, @FandaZKotle, @vogelmatej, @prochyss39, @33metalliza, @klappe19, @GuardiolaLBC, Duffman, Matěj Malý, Dominik, rv, FCSL_Molière, Luzicka23, Milan Švajcr, Michal, @bulir_s & @Kauik

Squad turnover

As of today, Slovan Liberec are the only side in the league currently losing not one, but two members of the league’s busiest Top 50 — Marek Icha (31st) and Ange N’Guessan (29th). Along with Dominik Plechatý and Toumani Diakité, those two are the main reasons why Liberec only retains 50.5% of minutes dished out to defence-minded players, while keeping 85.6% of minutes going to attack-minded players. The latter could still change if/once Ermin Mahmić finally points at the lucky suitor, which would make Slovan the third-most volatile top-flight side. In terms of MVP points, no club would be losing more subjective value over the summer.

Biggest upgrade

In my Slavia preview, I argued the Prague side will be better off without Vasil Kušej. Even easily so. Here I am going to argue Slovan will be better off with Vasil Kušej. Also easily. I promise it all makes sense. The thing about Liberec wingers was that two ranked comfortably below average when it came to their impact in the final third, while the one that ranked far higher lost a fair few fans towards the end of the season, trying to do too much without producing. Now, it’s possible Kušej ends up spending most time as a second striker, but even from there, his influence should be tremendously beneficial in place of Mahmić.

Kušej both comes at you with a solid (if declining) success rate and aims to sneak behind you, a rare dual threat which neither Afolabi Soliu (more of a come at you type) nor Patrik Dulay (more of a sneak in behind type) represents. He’s also, even at his mediocre, a substantially more impactful passer. And while Soliu actually ranks just behind Kušej (third) in terms of successful actions in the box, I don’t believe his rate of 1.83 is as sustainable as Kušej’s 1.98.

Biggest downgrade

At this point, the Oxford dictionary may as well have Ange N’Guessan‘s photo next to the definition of “rock”. Per my model, there were only four better pure defenders, with N’Guessan registering an absurd success rate of 92.4% in the tackles/was dribbled metric, but more importantly, only David Zima (living alone on a different planet) was considered more consistent and dependable. While the pizza chart doesn’t exactly highlight it, it’s merely the choice of three metrics. In total, I consider six and in two of those N’Guessan is in the top 15% — his 2.16 bad actions inside own half place him inside the Top 10, and his 16 net positive performances compared to 4 negative ones make him easily the top dog. Liberec only conceded 0.96 goals per game with N’Guessan on the pitch, and there were seven games in which the stud prevented tangible danger without putting a foot wrong per my notes.

There is a non-zero chance Šimon Gabriel soon returns after a year spent on the shelf and immediately looks like the old self (which would’ve been good enough to compensate). But until I see it happen, or until Lukáš Hůlka replicate the magic with Augustin Drakpe a couple more times, I’m choosing to be a bit pessimistic when it comes to mitigating the damage.

Need left to be addressed

A similar case to that of Michal Hlavatý, who left in January to see Liberec struggle immensely on the ball, Marek Icha may also get fully appreciated only when he’s not there. Granted, he was a part of the problem on the ball, opting to hoof it far too often for anyone’s liking, but he was also a formidable cutback weapon (2.12 per game compared to 0 from Josef Koželuh) capable of a through ball (1.22 per game compared to just 0.66 from Aziz Kayondo).

Indeed, it’s the contrast with other fullback options that would make me the most uneasy. Icha certainly registers sizeable holes in his game, and I wouldn’t mind anyone suggesting Kayondo is already the better player in aggregate (his defensive impacts are that good), but Fodrek pretty much needs to count on wingers to produce offence down the channels, and that could be a bit problematic in and of itself as discussed elsewhere in this piece.

Liberec boasted only the 8th- and 12th-best wide channels when it came to generating xGFExpected Goals For (xGF) estimates how many goals a team should have scored based on shot quality, location, and context. from positional attacks in 25/26. That is not good enough and I don’t think these two have it in them to make significant strides. Kayondo made only marginal progress across the board.

New kid on the block

While it’s only for the next 12 months, until the new U-19 model becomes effective, Slovan’s oldest youth category is once again losing its top-flight status after holding onto it for three years. Coupled with another failed season for the senior B-team, one would expect some depressing times at the club, but it’s closer to the opposite. For one, the third-tier reserves are welcoming club icon Václav Koloušek as an assistant coach, and their joint-second offence still did the trick in promoting the names like John Patrick Edeh (b. 2006), earning a second-tier loan at Česká Lípa through six goal contributions in his last six starts, or 13-goal Filip Papoušek, who has since followed his father ‘Papén’ to Viktoria Žižkov on a free transfer.

That is realistically all Ondřej Kania can hope for, since he openly admits having the B-team in Chance Národní Liga would be unnecessarily costly. And it needs to be said that even the U-19s — rather care-free amidst a largely meaningless relegation campaign — enjoyed some good vibes, like when they copied the A-team’s November, and notably showcased Joel Ashuku (b. 2007), whom Michael Rabušic pretty much handpicked in Nigeria as his heir apparent — a tall number 9. It took him 3 months to get his visa, but when he finally did, he was as good as advertized: notching eight tallies in 13 appearances. If he is to leave, Joel could potentially replace Lukáš Letenay on the depth chart below and pick up the odd minute.

Looking ahead to 2026/27

Below is the team’s current depth chart with a maximum of 4 alternatives for one position. The colourful ratings are a static snapshot of the league-wide situation on 21 July, and they are just a playful bit to add flavour to it; the names featured should be relevant to this day. To learn more about my approach to constructing depth charts, with all its limitations, head here.

Primary formation

At least until a recovered Šimon Gabriel forces him back into the conversation, this pretty much must be a 4-2-3-1 (also Fodrek’s primary option at DAC), potentially morphing into a flatter 4-3-3 with Faye or Bužek inserted in place of Hodouš or Soliu, with Kušej moving out wide. If/once Fodrek goes 3ATB3ATB means 3-at-the-back, ie. any formation with three centre backs and wingbacks, or alternatively, five defenders., a 3-4-3/5-4-1 is most likely given the plethora of wingers.

Colours I grappled with

The grey colour used for the right-hand side is effectively my benefit of the doubt for Vénouste Baboula who arrives highly recommended from Slovenia, notching a point once every two games. If Patrik Dulay can take the next step, like the opener suggested, the rating is justified but the fullback position is drawing me closer to the “below average” tag. On the other side, I am conversely not convinced and a lot also hinges on how Aleko Basiladze, only 20 and also injured to start his Liberec stint, turns out and whether he can elevate the attacking upside there. We have yet to see a lot from Petr Hodouš coming in from the left.

Notes on the depth chart

Staying on the subject of wingers for a bit, could you guess which metric both Afolabi Soliu and Dulay top? Correct: it’s the amount of time spent either sprinting or producing high-speed runs. They are the only regular wingers who went over 13% of the time. Similarly, they successfully pounced on loose balls and posted defensive actions at some of the best rates around. Dulay needs to keep his cool in the box far more, growing into more of a provider, too, while Soliu needs to cut out fouls big time (40 compared to 18 fouls won), but his placement in the Top 8 for prime offensive output in his age-20 campaign is a major promise.

While Krollis struggles to return to adequate match fitness post-surgery, Lukáš Mašek is the designated striker up top, aiming to produce a more complex pizza chart at the next attempt. He can be clinical and annoying in the desirable way, but he also often overdoes it off the ball (too many offsides and fouls) without serving any real purpose in the build-up time and time again. He only created 0.33 chances/goals for teammates per game, also producing the league’s bottom-six rate in metrics like open-play xTExpected Threat (xT) measures how the player increases the probability of scoring a goal by carrying or passing the ball., ball progressions in the final third, or xA. He may be what he is at this point, despite still only turning 22 in May, and perhaps it all works much better with less of a passenger below him, but adding more layers wouldn’t hurt.

Finally, I appreciate the intangibles, but I am not all that convinced this will be worth it. Jan Bořil was undoubtedly propped up by the quality surrounding him at Slavia, while taking some more steps back into the worrying territory in both sets of defence-first metrics.

Roster battle to follow

One of the striking findings when the 55-man preliminary World Cup squad came out was that there was no Slovan Liberec representative where e.g. Pardubice managed to sneak one. That is, in no small part, a result of the botched spring full of chasing the ball, and the disappointment wasn’t felt as intensely elsewhere as it was in the case of Vojtěch Stránský. One of the more exciting central midfielders of 24/25 was suddenly pretty ordinary, posting middle-of-the-road numbers for ball progression even among defence-minded midfielders after ranking 6th for a similar set of metrics among attack-minded midfielders last year.

Could he suddenly be in danger of surrendering the starter’s role after barely skipping a game? Judging by the opener, it’s nowhere close, but it also doesn’t feel outside the realm of possibility. Fallou Faye reminds some of Christ Tiéhi at his peak, exuding tons of calmness on the ball, picking the right passes, while intercepting a lot of passes with his spider-like legs. He’ll soon be forcing his way to the starting XI, and don’t sleep on Alexandr Bužek either.

Lukáš Masopust is the true wild card here, as ever. He might even be the best, most consequential passer of all, and presumably on a hefty salary. He will start often.

Season forecast

There isn’t a single more predictable team in the eyes of Jakub’s model. This is already a third time Liberec are pegged for the balanced regular-season record of 11 wins, 8 draws and 11 losses (also in 2023 and last summer). In the five years of doing this together, they have consistently moved across a four-point scale with this being their new low — the first time they are predicted to narrowly miss out on the 40-point mark, which they last did in 22/23.

This is also a new low with regards to UEFA odds. Slovan’s measly 17% chance was a hotly contested output last summer, but I can’t imagine many will debate the model now. The last time Liberec actually appeared on the continental scene, their goals were being scored by the likes of Yusuf Helal, Jan Matoušek, Kamso Mara or Taras Kacharaba. It has been a while.

Bold prediction

The track record: 1/5. Kováč’s victory against Jablonec was, agonizingly, his 49th

The prediction: All three top point getters of Slovan will not be Czechs

The rationale: Branislav Fodrek, himself born and bred in Bratislava, is well-accustomed to being an alien of sorts within his own state. On the club level, in various capacities for a period of about five years, he has only ever coached in Dunajská Streda — the biggest Hungarian hub in Slovakia, where ethnic Magyars make up around 70% of the town’s population. Accordingly, DAC is owned by a Hungarian, and its starting line-ups commonly feature only a handful of Slovaks. In Fodrek’s last game in charge, Filip Blažek was the sole native flag bearer. Despite the impressive Round 1, I don’t expect the debut campaign to go too smoothly for the 45-year-old manager, and so why wouldn’t we make him feel at home?

Last term, the one league goal DAC sourced from a Slovak was Christián Herc’s strike on 1 October. Since then, nothing. In terms of assists, there was a pair coming from two teenagers. Now, we are not going to go so over the top, but let’s say the three most prolific Slovan players will all be foreigners. Last year, this narrowly wouldn’t work out — Krollis and Mahmić led the way, but the good Czech boys Mašek, Icha, Hlavatý and Stránský followed.

Can Dulay and Soliu continue their hot-ish start? Would Krollis care to join them before Kušej inevitably re-discovers his mojo? Or could we get a surprise pitch from someone like Aziz Kayondo who suddenly turns into an assist machine? Is this bolder than I thought?

Enjoyed it and just want to casually support us with an amount of your choosing? No worries, you can still do that by inviting us for a symbolic pint at the old BuyMeACoffeeBeer page.